Hawesko Holding stock: fair value
HAW.DEThe fair value of Hawesko Holding under our model is $54.86, the price is 70% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Possible value trapIn our model the price counts as cheap below $39.19 and expensive above $91.43 (uncertainty high, one part of the fair value is more than twice the other).
The two parts of the fair value come to $83.54 (cash-flow model) and $26.18 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is below both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 7.1%. At 8.1% the fair value would be $47.92, at 6.1% it would be $65.27.
Possible value trap: looks cheap, but score below 50, weak growth.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (20.6).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 2.1%. Discounted at 7.1% (floor: government bond yield 2.1% plus 5 percentage points, since beta 1 times the risk premium would give less); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $83.54 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 7.1%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 7.1%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $38.32M | extrapolated at 1.1% | 0.9334 | $35.76M |
| 2027 | $38.84M | extrapolated at 1.4% | 0.8712 | $33.84M |
| 2028 | $39.47M | extrapolated at 1.6% | 0.8131 | $32.09M |
| 2029 | $40.16M | extrapolated at 1.8% | 0.7589 | $30.48M |
| 2030 | $40.92M | extrapolated at 1.9% | 0.7083 | $28.98M |
| 2031 | $41.72M | extrapolated at 2.0% | 0.6611 | $27.58M |
| 2032 | $42.56M | extrapolated at 2.0% | 0.6171 | $26.26M |
| 2033 | $43.43M | extrapolated at 2.1% | 0.5760 | $25.01M |
| 2034 | $44.33M | extrapolated at 2.1% | 0.5376 | $23.83M |
| 2035 | $45.26M | extrapolated at 2.1% | 0.5017 | $22.71M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $286.56M |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 2.1%) / (7.1% − 2.1%) | $924.6M |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.5017) | $463.91M |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $750.47M |
| Shares (diluted) | 8.98M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $83.54 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $1.27 |
| × 20.6 (industry P/E) | $26.18 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $54.86 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = €0.9024)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Weak, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 1 May 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.