Green Plains stock
GPRENASDAQGreen Plains Inc., Basic MaterialsISIN US3932221043
49Score 49 out of 100, Weak
Price and trend
45 / 100
Price history
+39% in one yearThe chart shows daily closes over 20 years, adjusted for stock splits and without dividends. Click into the chart to set a price alert at that price.
Below the 200-day line: the price is 11% below it.
Since October 2026 the 50-day line has been below the 200-day line; the trend has turned down.
Normal: the price is neither overheated nor sold off (RSI 45).
The price is 29% below its 52-week high. Largest decline in 20 years: 95% (January 2007 to March 2009).
Chart figures for advanced users
- SMA 50$14.56
- Average price of the last 50 trading days, shows the short-term trend.
- SMA 200$15.34
- Average price of the last 200 trading days, shows the long-term trend.
- RSI (14)45
- Relative strength over the last 14 days on a scale from 0 to 100. Above 70 the price counts as overheated, below 30 as sharply fallen.
- MACDabove the signal line
- Compares a fast and a slow price average. Above its signal line momentum is rising, below it momentum is fading.
- Support$9.40
- The lowest closing price of the last twelve months.
- Resistance$19.23
- The highest closing price of the last twelve months.
Snapshot
Computed from the data by fixed rules, no AI
- Green Plains Inc. belongs to the Chemicals industry (United States) and, with a market value of $954M, is number 36 of 44 companies in its industry on MEQIRI.
- In fiscal 2025 it reported revenue of $2.09B (down 14.9% year on year) and a loss of $121.28M.
- MEQIRI Score 49 out of 100 (Weak): rank 335 of 467 in Basic Materials, median 58.
Show more
- The P/E is 5.9 (Chemicals median 15.6, own median of recent years 33.6).
- Our model puts fair value at $23.32, with the price 42% below it.
In plain words
The numbers on this page in plain words, written by an AI
Strengths
- Modestly valuedP/E 5.9, Chemicals median 15.6, own median 33.6.Valuation 79
Weaknesses
- DilutionShare count up 95% since 2020.Capital allocation 36
- Analysts expect falling earningsDown 7.8% a year through 2028 (estimates from 2 analysts).Growth 40
- Volatile share priceVolatility 52% a year over the last 12 months.Stability 49
Its standout strength is valuation, while fundamentals and capital allocation hold the score back.
Daily figure as of 12 Nov 2026
How the score is calculatedScore overview
Score since yesterday from 52 to 49.
Fundamental quality fluctuates.
Score history
The full history of up to 20 years comes with MEQIRI Pro.
See plansCrash risk high
How well MEQIRI warnsOne of the 30% with the highest crash risk among smaller stocks.
From 2016 to 2025, 36 in 100 such stocks fell 30% or more within a year, against a group average of 23 in 100.
What drives the risk
- weak fundamentals
- cyclical sector (energy or materials), as a group, crashed more often in the backtest
Valuation
Valuation signal
Possible value trapClosing price of 11 Nov 2026, used by the daily score.
In our model the price counts as cheap below $16.66 and expensive above $38.87 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $10.60 (cash-flow model) and $36.05 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.8%. At 9.8% the fair value would be $22.42, at 7.8% it would be $24.69.
Possible value trap: looks cheap, but score below 50.
Valuation metrics
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (15.6).
Calculate with your own assumptionsCompany performance
This shows several years of history with an automatic assessment.
Revenue
In the twelve months to 30 Sep 2026, revenue fell 18.7% on the twelve months before. Revenue turned from negative at the start of the period to positive ($2.09B in the latest year).
Margins
- Gross margin
- Operating margin
- Net margin
In fiscal 2025: gross 2%, operating −4%, net −6%. Last 12 months: net 11%.
Debt & balance sheet
latest quarterDebt is moderate, but interest coverage is weak. Keep an eye on the interest burden and refinancing.
Earnings
- Next earnings
- 4 Feb 2027in 84 days
- Last reported
- 5 Nov 2026EPS reported $1.03 (expected $0.56)above expectations
Analyst estimates
- Earnings per share
- $2.53+21.0%
- Revenue
- $1.85B−3.2%
- Earnings per share
- $2.21+28.8%
- Revenue
- $1.9B−5.4%
MEQIRI has stored the estimates since 15 Oct 2026. Until 30 days are available, the card shows the change since that day. Mean estimate according to Financial Modeling Prep. No price target and no recommendation.
Company outlook confirmed
Share price after the results: −11.2%No change in outlook: about 95% capacity utilization and about $35 million of interest expense expected, with sustaining capex near the top of the range.
“We continue to expect full year interest expense of approximately $35 million.”The outlook is not part of the score and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
From the earnings call on 6 Aug 2026 (fiscal Q2 2026), read by AI.
Insiders
Open-market purchases and sales by executives, board members and major holders
No open-market purchases or sales in the last 6 months.
- Sweeney Patrick FrancisPurchase
6 Mar 2026, Board
- Shares
- 6,383
- Price
- $15.87
- Value
- $101,298
Source: Form 4 filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Grants, option exercises, gifts and tax withholdings are hidden. Not a recommendation to buy.
What happened at Green Plains
The key events of the last six months from our own data. A click takes you to the matching card.
Sector comparison
467 rated companies in Basic Materials
- This company
- 49
- Sector median
- 58
Categories against the sector median
The median is the middle value: half of the companies in the sector lie above it, half below. Categories with too few comparable companies are left out.
Competitors in Chemicals
The next larger and next smaller companies by market value
- RobertetRBT.PA $1.82B70
- HuntsmanHUN $1.71B42
- REX American ResourcesREX $1.32B73
- LanxessLXS.DE $1.24B39
- LSB IndustriesLXU $807.87M51
- Westlake Chemical PartnersWLKP $755.13M68
- SGL CarbonSGL.DE $677.53M48
- ValhiVHI $467.02M47
ETFs that hold Green Plains
Held by 12 ETFs on Xetra. Shown per index: the ETF with the largest weight.
| ETF | Weight | Cost | Fund size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Invesco Global Clean Energy UCITS ETF AccumUSDG1CE | 0.96% | 0.60% | €87.44M |
| Amundi Global Bioenergy UCITS ETF EUR AccWDNR | 0.75% | 0.35% | €151.65M |
| iShares Global Clean Energy Transition UCITS ETFIQQH | 0.67% | 0.65% | €2.49B |
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| iShares MSCI USA Small Cap CTB Enhanced ESG UCITS ETFSXRG | 0.03% | 0.43% | €2.48B |
| State Street SPDR Russell 2000 U.S. Small Cap UCITS ETF (Acc)ZPRR | 0.03% | 0.30% | €4.22B |
| Xtrackers Russell 2000 UCITS ETF 1CXRS2 | 0.03% | 0.30% | €2.17B |
| L&G Russell 2000 US Small Cap Quality UCITS ETFETLZ | 0.03% | 0.30% | €185.82M |
| State Street SPDR MSCI USA Small Cap Value Weighted UCITS ETFZPRV | 0.02% | 0.30% | €944.34M |
Holdings as reported by the funds via FMP, excluding swap ETFs (their holdings are only collateral).
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 12 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Weak since 12 Nov 2026, previously Neutral
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 12 Nov 2026, previously Undervalued
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.