Gecina stock
GFC.PAPARGecina S.A., Real EstateISIN FR0010040865
47Score 47 out of 100, Weak
Price and trend
60 / 100
Price history
−21% in one yearThe chart shows daily closes over 20 years, adjusted for stock splits and without dividends. Click into the chart to set a price alert at that price.
Below the 200-day line: the price is 8.4% below it.
Since August 2025 the 50-day line has been below the 200-day line; the trend has turned down.
Normal: the price is neither overheated nor sold off (RSI 56).
The price is 22% below its 52-week high. Largest decline in 20 years: 81% (May 2007 to March 2009).
Chart figures for advanced users
- SMA 50$71.20
- Average price of the last 50 trading days, shows the short-term trend.
- SMA 200$78.47
- Average price of the last 200 trading days, shows the long-term trend.
- RSI (14)56
- Relative strength over the last 14 days on a scale from 0 to 100. Above 70 the price counts as overheated, below 30 as sharply fallen.
- MACDabove the signal line
- Compares a fast and a slow price average. Above its signal line momentum is rising, below it momentum is fading.
- Support$66.09
- The lowest closing price of the last twelve months.
- Resistance$92.13
- The highest closing price of the last twelve months.
Snapshot
Computed from the data by fixed rules, no AI
- Gecina S.A. belongs to the REIT (Office) industry (France) and, with a market value of $5.33B, is number 5 of 19 companies in its industry on MEQIRI.
- In fiscal 2025 it reported revenue of $955.34M (up 0.5% year on year) and earnings of $498.71M (up 44.7%).
- For fiscal 2026, analysts expect on average revenue of $797.5M (down 16.5%) and adjusted earnings per share of $7.50.
Show more
- MEQIRI Score 47 out of 100 (Weak): rank 241 of 327 in Real Estate, median 55.
- The P/E is 32.7 because earnings over the last twelve months collapsed; on the expected earnings of the next twelve months it is 9.7 (REIT (Office) median 19.1). The P/E therefore does not count in the score.
- For real estate investment trusts (REITs) what counts is funds from operations (FFO and AFFO). The P/E and the payout ratio of earnings say little here, because depreciation on properties depresses earnings.
- Our model puts fair value at $101.79, with the price 29% below it.
In plain words
The numbers on this page in plain words, written by an AI
Strengths
- Earnings per share growingUp 23.6% a year since 2020.
- Reliable dividendNo dividend cut for 10 years.
- High marginNet margin 19.2% over the last 12 months, REIT (Office) median 4.1%.Profitability 55
Weaknesses
- Negative free cash flowFree cash flow −$517.61M over the last 12 months.Fundamentals 51
Its standout strength is valuation, while capital allocation and growth hold the score back.
Daily figure as of 12 Nov 2026
How the score is calculatedScore overview
The fundamentals are in the middle range.
Score history
The full history of up to 20 years comes with MEQIRI Pro.
See plansCrash risk medium
How well MEQIRI warnsIn the middle among smaller stocks.
From 2016 to 2025, 20 in 100 such stocks fell 30% or more within a year, against a group average of 23 in 100.
What drives the risk
- weak fundamentals
What lowers it
- low growth grade (crashed less often in the backtest)
- calm price action
Valuation
Valuation signal
Possible value trapClosing price of 11 Nov 2026, used by the daily score.
In our model the price counts as cheap below $84.82 and expensive above $127.24 (uncertainty low, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $130.72 (cash-flow model) and $72.86 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is below both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 7.8%. At 8.8% the fair value would be $90.91, at 6.8% it would be $118.10.
Possible value trap: looks cheap, but score below 50, weak growth.
Valuation metrics
Half from the cash-flow model, half from operating cash flow per share times the median price to cash flow of the REIT industry (8.6). For the fair value, FFO only counts when it is in line with operating cash flow. That is not the case here, for example because the REIT carries its properties at market value, records little depreciation or a gain on sale sits in earnings. The cash-flow model uses AFFO: operating cash flow less maintenance, estimated at 15% of revenue. New construction and acquisitions do not count as running costs there.
Calculate with your own assumptionsCompany performance
This shows several years of history with an automatic assessment.
Revenue
In the twelve months to 30 Jun 2026, revenue fell 13.6% on the twelve months before. Revenue has stayed largely stable since 2006.
Margins
- Gross margin
- Operating margin
- Net margin
In fiscal 2025: gross 77%, operating 65%, net 52%. Last 12 months: net 19%.
Debt & balance sheet
latest quarterModerate debt, and interest is adequately covered.
Earnings
- Next earnings
- 10 Feb 2027in 90 days
- Last reported
- 22 Jul 2026EPS reported $3.83 (expected $3.67)above expectations
Analyst estimates
Earnings estimates have barely changed since 15 Oct 2026.
- Earnings per share
- $7.50+0.2%
- Revenue
- $797.5M+0.8%
- Earnings per share
- $7.39−0.3%
- Revenue
- $810.96M+0.4%
MEQIRI has stored the estimates since 15 Oct 2026. Until 30 days are available, the card shows the change since that day. Mean estimate according to Financial Modeling Prep. No price target and no recommendation.
Company outlook confirmed
Share price after the results: +0.2%2026 guidance confirmed: recurring net income of EUR 6.70 to EUR 6.75 per share.
“And to conclude this first introduction, our 2026 guidance is confirmed with a recurring net income group share between EUR 6.7 and EUR 6.75 per share.”The outlook is not part of the score and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
From the earnings call on 15 Oct 2026 (fiscal Q3 2026), read by AI.
What happened at Gecina
The key events of the last six months from our own data. A click takes you to the matching card.
Sector comparison
327 rated companies in Real Estate
- This company
- 47
- Sector median
- 55
Categories against the sector median
The median is the middle value: half of the companies in the sector lie above it, half below. Categories with too few comparable companies are left out.
Competitors in REIT (Office)
The next larger and next smaller companies by market value
- BXPBXP $10.13B55
- Alexandria Real Estate EquitiesARE $7.85B37
- Vornado Realty TrustVNO $6.58B52
- Nippon Building Fund Incorporation8951.T $6.53B45
- Cousins PropertiesCUZ $4.88B51
- Kilroy RealtyKRC $4.21B45
- Colonial SFL SOCIMICOL.MC $3.58B58
- SL Green RealtySLG $3.52B43
ETFs that hold Gecina
Held by 118 ETFs on Xetra. Shown per index: the ETF with the largest weight.
| ETF | Weight | Cost | Fund size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Invesco EURO STOXX High Dividend Low Volatility UCITS ETFEHDV | 2.95% | 0.30% | €591.5M |
| iShares European Property Yield UCITS ETFIPRE | 2.74% | 0.40% | €193.25M |
| State Street SPDR FTSE EPRA Europe ex UK Real Estate UCITS ETFZPRP | 2.50% | 0.30% | €113.99M |
Show 5 more
| Xtrackers FTSE Developed Europe ex UK Real Estate UCITS ETF 1CXREA | 2.49% | 0.33% | €18.23M |
| iShares STOXX Europe 600 Real Estate UCITS ETF (DE)EXI5 | 2.14% | 0.46% | €59.96M |
| Xtrackers FTSE Developed Europe Real Estate UCITS ETF 1CD5BK | 1.68% | 0.33% | €639.74M |
| UBS Factor MSCI EMU Low Volatility UCITS ETF EUR disUIMY | 1.19% | 0.25% | €9.25M |
| State Street SPDR EURO STOXX Low Volatility UCITS ETF (Acc)ZPRL | 1.09% | 0.30% | €29.81M |
Holdings as reported by the funds via FMP, excluding swap ETFs (their holdings are only collateral).
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 12 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 11 Nov 2026 ($1 = €0.8987)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Weak, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 25 Sep 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.