Fastly stock: fair value
FSLYThe fair value of Fastly under our model is $15.09, the price is 14% above.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Fairly valuedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $10.06 and expensive above $30.19 (uncertainty very high, based on the price swings of the past year).
Calculated with a cost of equity of 10.2%. At 11.2% the fair value would be $12.88, at 9.2% it would be $18.14.
Where the number comes from
From the cash-flow model alone; without earnings there is no industry value.
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 3.8%. Discounted at 10.2% (government bond yield 3.8% plus beta 1.43 times a risk premium of 4.4%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $15.09 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 10.2%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 10.2%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $84.97M | extrapolated at 37.7% | 0.9075 | $77.11M |
| 2027 | $108.35M | extrapolated at 27.5% | 0.8236 | $89.23M |
| 2028 | $130.47M | extrapolated at 20.4% | 0.7474 | $97.51M |
| 2029 | $150.61M | extrapolated at 15.4% | 0.6782 | $102.15M |
| 2030 | $168.61M | extrapolated at 12.0% | 0.6155 | $103.78M |
| 2031 | $184.66M | extrapolated at 9.5% | 0.5586 | $103.14M |
| 2032 | $199.08M | extrapolated at 7.8% | 0.5069 | $100.92M |
| 2033 | $212.25M | extrapolated at 6.6% | 0.4600 | $97.64M |
| 2034 | $224.52M | extrapolated at 5.8% | 0.4175 | $93.73M |
| 2035 | $236.19M | extrapolated at 5.2% | 0.3788 | $89.48M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $954.69M |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 3.8%) / (10.2% − 3.8%) | $3.85B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.3788) | $1.46B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $2.41B |
| Shares (diluted) | 159.99M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $15.09 |
| Fair value (from the cash flow model alone) | $15.09 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Weak, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 31 May 2020)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.