Forestar Group stock
FORNYSEForestar Group Inc., Real EstateISIN US3462321015
48Score 48 out of 100, Weak
Price and trend
31 / 100
Price history
−10% in one yearThe chart shows daily closes over 19 years, adjusted for stock splits and without dividends. Click into the chart to set a price alert at that price.
Below the 200-day line: the price is 19% below it.
Since October 2026 the 50-day line has been below the 200-day line; the trend has turned down.
Sharply down: the price has fallen very quickly lately (RSI 29).
The price is 30% below its 52-week high. Largest decline in 19 years: 90% (February 2008 to November 2008).
Chart figures for advanced users
- SMA 50$25.66
- Average price of the last 50 trading days, shows the short-term trend.
- SMA 200$27.33
- Average price of the last 200 trading days, shows the long-term trend.
- RSI (14)29
- Relative strength over the last 14 days on a scale from 0 to 100. Above 70 the price counts as overheated, below 30 as sharply fallen.
- MACDbelow the signal line
- Compares a fast and a slow price average. Above its signal line momentum is rising, below it momentum is fading.
- Support$22.24
- The lowest closing price of the last twelve months.
- Resistance$31.98
- The highest closing price of the last twelve months.
Snapshot
Computed from the data by fixed rules, no AI
- Forestar Group Inc. belongs to the Real Estate (Development) industry (United States) and, with a market value of $1.13B, is number 56 of 84 companies in its industry on MEQIRI.
- In fiscal 2026 it reported revenue of $1.64B (down 1.6% year on year) and earnings of $142.6M (down 15.1%).
- MEQIRI Score 48 out of 100 (Weak): rank 230 of 327 in Real Estate, median 55.
Show more
- The P/E is 8 (Real Estate (Development) median 11.4, own median of recent years 8.8).
- Our model puts fair value at $31.66, with the price 28% below it.
In plain words
The numbers on this page in plain words, written by an AI
Strengths
- Consistently profitableProfit in all 10 fiscal years from 2016 to 2026.
Weaknesses
- Margin fallingOperating margin 10.5%, average of the prior years 14.4% (to 2025).Profitability 43
Its standout strengths are valuation and stability, while technical analysis and capital allocation hold the score back.
Daily figure as of 12 Nov 2026
How the score is calculatedScore overview
Fundamental quality fluctuates.
Score history
The full history of up to 20 years comes with MEQIRI Pro.
See plansCrash risk high
How well MEQIRI warnsOne of the 30% with the highest crash risk among smaller stocks.
From 2016 to 2025, 36 in 100 such stocks fell 30% or more within a year, against a group average of 23 in 100.
What drives the risk
- weak fundamentals
- price far below its 52-week high
Valuation
Valuation signal
Possible value trapClosing price of 11 Nov 2026, used by the daily score.
In our model the price counts as cheap below $24.35 and expensive above $45.23 (uncertainty medium, based on the price swings of the past year).
Possible value trap: looks cheap, but score below 50.
Valuation metrics
From earnings times the industry P/E (11.4) alone; there are no viable cash flows for the cash-flow model.
Calculate with your own assumptionsCompany performance
This shows several years of history with an automatic assessment.
Revenue
In fiscal 2026, revenue fell 1.6% on the prior year. Revenue has grown strongly since 2019, at around 21% per year. From 2019 revenue is reported differently (for example gross instead of net), so earlier years are not comparable and not shown.
Margins
- Gross margin
- Operating margin
- Net margin
In fiscal 2026: gross 20%, operating 10%, net 9%. From 2019 revenue is reported differently (for example gross instead of net), so earlier years are not comparable and not shown.
Debt & balance sheet
latest quarterThe balance sheet is solid, with moderate debt and comfortable interest coverage.
Earnings
- Next earnings
- 19 Jan 2027in 68 days
- Last reported
- 29 Oct 2026EPS reported $1.15 (expected $1.25)below expectations
Analyst estimates
Analysts have cut their 2028 earnings estimate by 6.3% since 15 Oct 2026. Falling estimates often precede bad news.
- Earnings per share
- $2.26−20.7%
- Revenue
- $1.45B−13.3%
- Earnings per share
- $2.60−6.3%
- Revenue
- $1.58B−6.3%
MEQIRI has stored the estimates since 15 Oct 2026. Until 30 days are available, the card shows the change since that day. Mean estimate according to Financial Modeling Prep. No price target and no recommendation.
Company outlook lowered
Share price after the results: −7.6%Forestar expects fiscal 2027 revenue of only $1.4 to $1.5 billion and 12,000 to 13,000 lots delivered, down from fiscal 2026's $1.6 billion, citing ongoing affordability constraints and cautious homebuyers.
“As we look forward to fiscal 2027, based on current market conditions, we expect to deliver between 12,000 and 13,000 lots and to generate $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion of revenue.”The outlook is not part of the score and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
From the earnings call on 29 Oct 2026 (fiscal Q4 2026), read by AI.
Insiders
Open-market purchases and sales by executives, board members and major holders
No open-market purchases in the last 6 months. One insider sold, $162,060 in total.
Sales say less than purchases: many insiders sell on a fixed plan, for taxes or to diversify.
Source: Form 4 filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Grants, option exercises, gifts and tax withholdings are hidden. Not a recommendation to buy.
What happened at Forestar Group
The key events of the last six months from our own data. A click takes you to the matching card.
Sector comparison
327 rated companies in Real Estate
- This company
- 48
- Sector median
- 55
Categories against the sector median
The median is the middle value: half of the companies in the sector lie above it, half below. Categories with too few comparable companies are left out.
Competitors in Real Estate (Development)
The next larger and next smaller companies by market value
- Deutsche EuroShopDEQ.DE $1.38B58
- Cham Swiss PropertiesCHAM.SW $1.37B55
- Atrium LjungbergATRLJ-B.ST $1.36B44
- Zug Estates HoldingZUGN.SW $1.36B53
- LAMDA DevelopmentLAMDA.AT $1.14B39
- Cibus Nordic Real EstateCIBUS.ST $1.11B59
- Aedas HomesAEDAS.MC $1.09B54
- PlazzaPLAN.SW $1.06B61
ETFs that hold Forestar Group
Held by 10 ETFs on Xetra. Shown per index: the ETF with the largest weight.
| ETF | Weight | Cost | Fund size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avantis Global Small Cap Value UCITS ETFAVWS | 0.04% | 0.39% | €1.47B |
| L&G Russell 2000 US Small Cap Quality UCITS ETFETLZ | 0.03% | 0.30% | €185.82M |
| State Street SPDR MSCI USA Small Cap Value Weighted UCITS ETFZPRV | 0.02% | 0.30% | €944.34M |
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| Xtrackers Russell 2000 UCITS ETF 1CXRS2 | 0.02% | 0.30% | €2.17B |
| State Street SPDR Russell 2000 U.S. Small Cap UCITS ETF (Acc)ZPRR | 0.02% | 0.30% | €4.22B |
| iShares MSCI USA Small Cap CTB Enhanced ESG UCITS ETFSXRG | 0.01% | 0.43% | €2.48B |
| iShares MSCI World Small Cap UCITS ETFIUSN | 0.00% | 0.35% | €8.19B |
| UBS MSCI USA Select Factor Mix UCITS ETF USD accUSUE | 0.00% | 0.25% | €175.89M |
Holdings as reported by the funds via FMP, excluding swap ETFs (their holdings are only collateral).
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 12 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2026, period end 30 Sep 2026
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Weak, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 30 Oct 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.