F.I.L.A. - Fabbrica Italiana Lapis ed Affini stock: fair value
FILA.MIThe fair value of F.I.L.A. - Fabbrica Italiana Lapis ed Affini under our model is $18.59, the price is 46% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Significantly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $13.28 and expensive above $30.99 (uncertainty high, one part of the fair value is more than twice the other).
The two parts of the fair value come to $5.24 (cash-flow model) and $31.95 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 13.3%. At 14.3% the fair value would be $18.37, at 12.3% it would be $18.87.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the sector P/E (22.8).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 3.5%. Discounted at 13.3% (government bond yield 3.5% plus beta 1.47 times a risk premium of 6.7%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $5.24 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 13.3%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 13.3%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $33.1M | extrapolated at −9.9% | 0.8823 | $29.2M |
| 2027 | $31.17M | extrapolated at −5.9% | 0.7784 | $24.26M |
| 2028 | $30.22M | extrapolated at −3.0% | 0.6868 | $20.75M |
| 2029 | $29.89M | extrapolated at −1.1% | 0.6059 | $18.11M |
| 2030 | $29.98M | extrapolated at 0.3% | 0.5346 | $16.03M |
| 2031 | $30.36M | extrapolated at 1.3% | 0.4717 | $14.32M |
| 2032 | $30.95M | extrapolated at 1.9% | 0.4161 | $12.88M |
| 2033 | $31.7M | extrapolated at 2.4% | 0.3672 | $11.64M |
| 2034 | $32.56M | extrapolated at 2.7% | 0.3239 | $10.55M |
| 2035 | $33.53M | extrapolated at 3.0% | 0.2858 | $9.58M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $167.33M |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 3.5%) / (13.3% − 3.5%) | $353M |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.2858) | $100.89M |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $268.22M |
| Shares (diluted) | 51.23M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $5.24 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $1.40 |
| × 22.8 (sector P/E) | $31.95 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $18.59 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = €0.9024)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 24 Jul 2026)
- Valuation signal Undervalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.