Ferrovial stock: fair value
FERThe fair value of Ferrovial under our model is $44.53, the price is 37% above.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Modestly overvaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $31.81 and expensive above $74.21 (uncertainty high, one part of the fair value is more than twice the other).
The two parts of the fair value come to $62.73 (cash-flow model) and $26.33 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 7.3%. At 8.3% the fair value would be $39.19, at 6.3% it would be $52.53.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (19.2).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 2.3%. Discounted at 7.3% (government bond yield 2.3% plus beta 1.19 times a risk premium of 4.2%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $62.73 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 7.3%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 7.3%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.83B | extrapolated at 13.8% | 0.9317 | $1.7B |
| 2027 | $2.02B | extrapolated at 10.4% | 0.8680 | $1.75B |
| 2028 | $2.18B | extrapolated at 8.0% | 0.8087 | $1.76B |
| 2029 | $2.31B | extrapolated at 6.3% | 0.7534 | $1.74B |
| 2030 | $2.43B | extrapolated at 5.1% | 0.7019 | $1.71B |
| 2031 | $2.54B | extrapolated at 4.3% | 0.6539 | $1.66B |
| 2032 | $2.63B | extrapolated at 3.7% | 0.6092 | $1.6B |
| 2033 | $2.71B | extrapolated at 3.3% | 0.5676 | $1.54B |
| 2034 | $2.79B | extrapolated at 3.0% | 0.5288 | $1.48B |
| 2035 | $2.87B | extrapolated at 2.8% | 0.4927 | $1.41B |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $16.36B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 2.3%) / (7.3% − 2.3%) | $58.47B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4927) | $28.8B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $45.16B |
| Shares (diluted) | 719.91M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $62.73 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $1.37 |
| × 19.2 (industry P/E) | $26.33 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $44.53 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = €0.9024)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 25 Oct 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.