First Citizens BancShares stock: fair value
FCNCAThe fair value of First Citizens BancShares under our model is $2,664.21, the price is 13% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Fairly valuedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $2,049.39 and expensive above $3,806.01 (uncertainty medium, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $2,837.96 (excess return model) and $2,490.46 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is slightly below both parts; given how much the stock swings, that still counts as fair.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.8%. At 9.8% the fair value would be $2,427.71, at 7.8% it would be $3,018.95.
Where the number comes from
Half from the excess return model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (12.2).
Excess return model for banks and insurers: book value plus the value of returns above the cost of equity of 8.8% (floor: government bond yield 3.8% plus 5 percentage points, since beta 0.8 times the risk premium would give less).
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the excess return model arrives at $2,837.96 per share: book value plus the value of what the company earns above its cost of equity over time. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Book value per share | $1,917.87 |
| Stable earnings per share (analyst estimates) | $215.35 |
| Return on equity in the model (stable earnings divided by book value) | 11.2% |
| Cost of equity | 8.8% |
| Excess return per share: (return − cost) × book value | $46.00 |
| Terminal value of excess returns: excess return / (8.8% − 3.8%) | $920.09 |
| Value per share (book value plus terminal value) | $2,837.96 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $203.64 |
| × 12.2 (industry P/E) | $2,490.46 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $2,664.21 |
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Strong, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 27 Mar 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.