Expand Energy stock
EXENASDAQExpand Energy Corporation, EnergyISIN US1651677353
57Score 57 out of 100, Neutral
Price and trend
38 / 100
Price history
−27% in one yearThe chart shows daily closes over 6 years, adjusted for stock splits and without dividends. Click into the chart to set a price alert at that price.
Below the 200-day line: the price is 8.5% below it.
Since April 2026 the 50-day line has been below the 200-day line; the trend has turned down.
Normal: the price is neither overheated nor sold off (RSI 34).
The price is 29% below its 52-week high. Largest decline in 6 years: 33% (November 2022 to September 2024).
Chart figures for advanced users
- SMA 50$90.14
- Average price of the last 50 trading days, shows the short-term trend.
- SMA 200$95.90
- Average price of the last 200 trading days, shows the long-term trend.
- RSI (14)34
- Relative strength over the last 14 days on a scale from 0 to 100. Above 70 the price counts as overheated, below 30 as sharply fallen.
- MACDbelow the signal line
- Compares a fast and a slow price average. Above its signal line momentum is rising, below it momentum is fading.
- Support$84.09
- The lowest closing price of the last twelve months.
- Resistance$122.89
- The highest closing price of the last twelve months.
Snapshot
Computed from the data by fixed rules, no AI
- Expand Energy Corporation belongs to the Oil & Gas Exploration & Production industry (United States) and, with a market value of $20.28B, is number 12 of 69 companies in its industry on MEQIRI.
- For fiscal 2026, analysts expect on average revenue of $13.42B (up 15.2%) and adjusted earnings per share of $8.67 (up 42.3%).
- MEQIRI Score 57 out of 100 (Neutral): rank 153 of 266 in Energy, median 60.
Show more
- The P/E is 7.4 (Oil & Gas Exploration & Production median 10.8, own median of recent years 3.3).
- Our model puts fair value at $196.58, with the price 55% below it.
In plain words
The numbers on this page in plain words, written by an AI
Strengths
- Below fair valuePrice 55% below the fair value of $196.58.Valuation 99
- High marginNet margin 20.1% over the last 12 months, Oil & Gas Exploration & Production median 12.4%.Profitability 69
Weaknesses
- DilutionShare count up 101% since 2021.Capital allocation 38
- Earnings per share fallingDown 38.5% a year since 2021.Growth 64
- Margin fallingOperating margin 17.5%, average of the prior years 31.8% (to 2024).Profitability 69
Its standout strengths are valuation and stability, while capital allocation and momentum hold the score back.
Daily figure as of 12 Nov 2026
How the score is calculatedScore overview
Score since yesterday from 58 to 57.
The fundamentals are in the middle range.
Score history
The full history of up to 20 years comes with MEQIRI Pro.
See plansCrash risk high
How well MEQIRI warnsOne of the 30% with the highest crash risk among stocks ranked 101 to 1,000.
From 2016 to 2025, 23 in 100 such stocks fell 30% or more within a year, against a group average of 15 in 100.
What drives the risk
- cyclical sector (energy or materials), as a group, crashed more often in the backtest
- weak fundamentals
Valuation
Valuation signal
Significantly undervaluedClosing price of 11 Nov 2026, used by the daily score.
In our model the price counts as cheap below $140.41 and expensive above $327.63 (uncertainty high, one part of the fair value is more than twice the other).
The two parts of the fair value come to $265.45 (cash-flow model) and $127.71 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is below both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.8%. At 9.8% the fair value would be $173.06, at 7.8% it would be $231.97.
Valuation metrics
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (10.8).
Calculate with your own assumptionsCompany performance
This shows several years of history with an automatic assessment.
Revenue
In the twelve months to 30 Sep 2026, revenue rose 26.2% on the twelve months before. Revenue has changed sharply in recent years: $11.65B in 2025 after $4.22B in 2024.
Margins
- Gross margin
- Operating margin
- Net margin
In fiscal 2025: gross 47%, operating 17%, net 16%.
Debt & balance sheet
latest quarterThe balance sheet is solid, with low debt and comfortable interest coverage.
Earnings
- Next earnings
- 16 Feb 2027in 96 days
- Last reported
- 27 Oct 2026EPS reported $1.46 (expected $1.29)above expectations
Analyst estimates
Earnings estimates have barely changed since 15 Oct 2026.
- Earnings per share
- $8.67+0.1%
- Revenue
- $13.42B+2.7%
- Earnings per share
- $8.22−1.5%
- Revenue
- $12.76B+1.8%
MEQIRI has stored the estimates since 15 Oct 2026. Until 30 days are available, the card shows the change since that day. Mean estimate according to Financial Modeling Prep. No price target and no recommendation.
Company outlook mixed
Share price after the results: −4.4%Expand Energy expects the Twin Eagle acquisition to add 12 cents per Mcfe to fourth quarter margin, but sees headwinds for 2027 from falling gas prices due to new Permian pipelines and a weaker winter outlook.
“The combined Expand and Twin Eagle Marketing profits are expected to add 12¢/Mcfe to our fourth quarter margin.”The outlook is not part of the score and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
From the earnings call on 28 Oct 2026 (fiscal Q3 2026), read by AI.
Insiders
Open-market purchases and sales by executives, board members and major holders
2 insiders bought on the open market in the last 6 months, $368,020 in total.
Source: Form 4 filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Grants, option exercises, gifts and tax withholdings are hidden. Not a recommendation to buy.
What happened at Expand Energy
The key events of the last six months from our own data. A click takes you to the matching card.
Sector comparison
266 rated companies in Energy
- This company
- 57
- Sector median
- 60
Categories against the sector median
The median is the middle value: half of the companies in the sector lie above it, half below. Categories with too few comparable companies are left out.
Competitors in Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
The next larger and next smaller companies by market value
- Woodside Energy GroupWDS $40.26B58
- EQTEQT $32.96B62
- Inpex1605.T $26.06B72
- Aker BPAKRBP.OL $21.34B74
- Texas Pacific LandTPL $19.41B72
- Permian ResourcesPR $18.69B68
- Tourmaline OilTOU.TO $17.68B51
- OvintivOVV $17.05B71
ETFs that hold Expand Energy
Held by 87 ETFs on Xetra. Shown per index: the ETF with the largest weight.
| ETF | Weight | Cost | Fund size |
|---|---|---|---|
| iShares Oil & Gas Exploration & Production UCITS ETF USD (Acc)IS0D | 2.78% | 0.55% | €373.7M |
| Invesco NASDAQ Next Generation 100 UCITS ETF AccEQQJ | 1.04% | 0.25% | €44.3M |
| Xtrackers MSCI USA Energy UCITS ETF 1DXUEN | 0.90% | 0.12% | €126.6M |
Show 5 more
| iShares S&P 500 Energy Sector UCITS ETFQDVF | 0.88% | 0.15% | €1.6B |
| State Street SPDR S&P U.S. Energy Select Sector UCITS ETF (Acc)ZPDE | 0.87% | 0.15% | €848.33M |
| Xtrackers MSCI World Energy UCITS ETF 1CXDW0 | 0.55% | 0.25% | €1.83B |
| iShares MSCI World Energy Sector UCITS ETF USD5MVW | 0.55% | 0.18% | €1.31B |
| First Trust US Large Cap Core AlphaDEX UCITS ETFFTGU | 0.45% | 0.75% | €140.24M |
Holdings as reported by the funds via FMP, excluding swap ETFs (their holdings are only collateral).
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 12 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 20 Feb 2026)
- Valuation signal Undervalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.