Exail Technologies stock: fair value
EXA.PAThe fair value of Exail Technologies under our model is $214.64, the price is 35% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Possible value trapIn our model the price counts as cheap below $153.32 and expensive above $357.74 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
Calculated with a cost of equity of 7.8%. At 8.8% the fair value would be $176.67, at 6.8% it would be $271.77.
Possible value trap: looks cheap, but score below 50, weak balance sheet.
Where the number comes from
From the cash-flow model alone; without earnings there is no industry value.
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 2.8%. Discounted at 7.8% (floor: government bond yield 2.8% plus 5 percentage points, since beta 1.11 times the risk premium would give less); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $214.64 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 7.8%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 7.8%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $103.82M | extrapolated at 33.6% | 0.9278 | $96.33M |
| 2027 | $129.08M | extrapolated at 24.3% | 0.8608 | $111.12M |
| 2028 | $152.13M | extrapolated at 17.9% | 0.7987 | $121.51M |
| 2029 | $172.42M | extrapolated at 13.3% | 0.7410 | $127.77M |
| 2030 | $189.96M | extrapolated at 10.2% | 0.6876 | $130.61M |
| 2031 | $205.07M | extrapolated at 8.0% | 0.6379 | $130.82M |
| 2032 | $218.19M | extrapolated at 6.4% | 0.5919 | $129.14M |
| 2033 | $229.79M | extrapolated at 5.3% | 0.5492 | $126.19M |
| 2034 | $240.25M | extrapolated at 4.6% | 0.5095 | $122.41M |
| 2035 | $249.92M | extrapolated at 4.0% | 0.4727 | $118.14M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $1.21B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 2.8%) / (7.8% − 2.8%) | $5.14B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4727) | $2.43B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $3.64B |
| Shares (diluted) | 16.97M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $214.64 |
| Fair value (from the cash flow model alone) | $214.64 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = €0.9024)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Weak, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 31 Jul 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.