Equatorial Energia stock: fair value
EQTL3.SAThe fair value of Equatorial Energia under our model is $3.33, the price is 82% above.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Significantly overvaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $2.38 and expensive above $5.54 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
Calculated with a cost of equity of 13.5%. At 14.5% the fair value would be $2.85, at 12.5% it would be $4.00.
Where the number comes from
From the cash-flow model alone; after a one-off collapse in earnings there is no industry value.
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 7.5%. Discounted at 13.5% (government bond yield 7.5% plus beta 0.8 times a risk premium of 7.5%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $3.33 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 13.5%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 13.5%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $240.81M | extrapolated at 9.6% | 0.8812 | $212.19M |
| 2027 | $262.41M | extrapolated at 9.0% | 0.7765 | $203.75M |
| 2028 | $284.81M | extrapolated at 8.5% | 0.6842 | $194.86M |
| 2029 | $308.24M | extrapolated at 8.2% | 0.6029 | $185.83M |
| 2030 | $332.93M | extrapolated at 8.0% | 0.5312 | $176.86M |
| 2031 | $359.1M | extrapolated at 7.9% | 0.4681 | $168.1M |
| 2032 | $386.95M | extrapolated at 7.8% | 0.4125 | $159.61M |
| 2033 | $416.68M | extrapolated at 7.7% | 0.3635 | $151.45M |
| 2034 | $448.47M | extrapolated at 7.6% | 0.3203 | $143.63M |
| 2035 | $482.53M | extrapolated at 7.6% | 0.2822 | $136.18M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $1.73B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 7.5%) / (13.5% − 7.5%) | $8.68B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.2822) | $2.45B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $4.18B |
| Shares (diluted) | 1.26B |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $3.33 |
| Fair value (from the cash flow model alone) | $3.33 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = R$5.6169)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Weak, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 30 Oct 2026)
- Valuation signal Overvalued since 7 Nov 2026, previously Fairly valued
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.