Embraer stock: fair value
EMBJThe fair value of Embraer under our model is $63.92, the price is 24% above.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Fairly valuedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $45.66 and expensive above $106.54 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $62.05 (cash-flow model) and $65.79 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is slightly above both parts; given how much the stock swings, that still counts as fair.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 15.5%. At 16.5% the fair value would be $60.29, at 14.5% it would be $68.60.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (31.3).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 7.5%. Discounted at 15.5% (government bond yield 7.5% plus beta 1.07 times a risk premium of 7.5%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $62.05 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 15.5%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 15.5%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $632.51M | extrapolated at 27.9% | 0.8656 | $547.48M |
| 2027 | $770.46M | extrapolated at 21.8% | 0.7492 | $577.22M |
| 2028 | $905.43M | extrapolated at 17.5% | 0.6485 | $587.15M |
| 2029 | $1.04B | extrapolated at 14.5% | 0.5613 | $581.99M |
| 2030 | $1.17B | extrapolated at 12.4% | 0.4858 | $566.29M |
| 2031 | $1.29B | extrapolated at 10.9% | 0.4205 | $543.8M |
| 2032 | $1.42B | extrapolated at 9.9% | 0.3640 | $517.35M |
| 2033 | $1.55B | extrapolated at 9.2% | 0.3151 | $488.96M |
| 2034 | $1.69B | extrapolated at 8.7% | 0.2727 | $460M |
| 2035 | $1.83B | extrapolated at 8.3% | 0.2360 | $431.34M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $5.3B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 7.5%) / (15.5% − 7.5%) | $24.49B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.2360) | $5.78B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $11.08B |
| Shares (diluted) | 178.60M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $62.05 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $2.10 |
| × 31.3 (industry P/E) | $65.79 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $63.92 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = R$5.6169)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 30 Sep 2024)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.