Ellington Financial stock
EFCNYSEEllington Financial Inc., Real EstateISIN US28852N1090
56Score 56 out of 100, Neutral
Price and trend
37 / 100
Price history
−20% in one yearThe chart shows daily closes over 16 years, adjusted for stock splits and without dividends. Click into the chart to set a price alert at that price.
Below the 200-day line: the price is 14% below it.
Since October 2026 the 50-day line has been below the 200-day line; the trend has turned down.
Normal: the price is neither overheated nor sold off (RSI 36).
The price is 21% below its 52-week high. Largest decline in 16 years: 85% (February 2013 to April 2020).
Chart figures for advanced users
- SMA 50$11.99
- Average price of the last 50 trading days, shows the short-term trend.
- SMA 200$12.78
- Average price of the last 200 trading days, shows the long-term trend.
- RSI (14)36
- Relative strength over the last 14 days on a scale from 0 to 100. Above 70 the price counts as overheated, below 30 as sharply fallen.
- MACDbelow the signal line
- Compares a fast and a slow price average. Above its signal line momentum is rising, below it momentum is fading.
- Support$11.01
- The lowest closing price of the last twelve months.
- Resistance$14.01
- The highest closing price of the last twelve months.
Snapshot
Computed from the data by fixed rules, no AI
- Ellington Financial Inc. belongs to the REIT (Mortgage) industry (United States) and, with a market value of $1.43B, is number 7 of 19 companies in its industry on MEQIRI.
- In fiscal 2025 it reported revenue of $674.55M (up 139% year on year) and earnings of $146.87M (up 0.7%).
- MEQIRI Score 56 out of 100 (Neutral): rank 148 of 327 in Real Estate, median 55.
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- The P/E is 6.8 (REIT (Mortgage) median 13.5, own median of recent years 10.9).
- For real estate investment trusts (REITs) what counts is funds from operations (FFO and AFFO). The P/E and the payout ratio of earnings say little here, because depreciation on properties depresses earnings.
- Our model puts fair value at $13.62, with the price 18% below it.
In plain words
The numbers on this page in plain words, written by an AI
Strengths
- Growing faster than its industryRevenue up 80.6% a year since 2020, REIT (Mortgage) median 21.4%.Growth 99
- High marginNet margin 35.4% over the last 12 months, REIT (Mortgage) median 20.7%.Profitability 66
- Earnings turn into cashFree cash flow 221% of earnings over the last 12 months.Fundamentals 60
Weaknesses
- DilutionShare count up 125% since 2020.Capital allocation 21
- Interest barely coveredOperating profit covers interest only 1.5 times.Stability 32
- Dividend at riskDividend yield 14%. At yields this high (12 to 15%), the dividend was cut by at least a fifth within a year in 44 of 100 cases from 2011 to 2025, against 7 of 100 at 2 to 4%.Capital allocation 21
Its standout strengths are growth and valuation, while momentum and capital allocation hold the score back.
Daily figure as of 12 Nov 2026
How the score is calculatedScore overview
Score since yesterday from 57 to 56.
The fundamentals are in the middle range.
Score history
The full history of up to 20 years comes with MEQIRI Pro.
See plansCrash risk high
How well MEQIRI warnsOne of the 30% with the highest crash risk among smaller stocks.
From 2016 to 2025, 36 in 100 such stocks fell 30% or more within a year, against a group average of 23 in 100.
What drives the risk
- high growth grade (crashed more often in the backtest)
What lowers it
- calm price action
Valuation
Valuation signal
Modestly undervaluedClosing price of 11 Nov 2026, used by the daily score.
In our model the price counts as cheap below $9.73 and expensive above $22.69 (uncertainty high, mortgage REIT, the fair value is book value alone).
Valuation metrics
For mortgage REITs the fair value is book value per share: equity excluding preferred stock from the latest balance sheet, divided by the shares on the same date. The signal therefore assumes at least high uncertainty.
Calculate with your own assumptionsCompany performance
This shows several years of history with an automatic assessment.
Revenue
In the twelve months to 30 Sep 2026, revenue rose 86.5% on the twelve months before. Revenue has grown strongly since 2008, at around 29% per year.
Margins
- Gross margin
- Operating margin
- Net margin
In fiscal 2025: gross 84%, operating 62%, net 22%. Last 12 months: net 35%.
Debt & balance sheet
latest quarterDebt is elevated. Keep an eye on the interest burden and refinancing.
Earnings
- Next earnings
- 24 Feb 2027in 104 days
- Last reported
- 4 Nov 2026EPS reported $0.45 (expected $0.47)below expectations
Analyst estimates
Earnings estimates have barely changed since 15 Oct 2026.
- Earnings per share
- $2.080.0%
- Revenue
- $517.21M0.0%
- Earnings per share
- $1.980.0%
- Revenue
- $525.88M0.0%
MEQIRI has stored the estimates since 15 Oct 2026. Until 30 days are available, the card shows the change since that day. Mean estimate according to Financial Modeling Prep. No price target and no recommendation.
Insiders
Open-market purchases and sales by executives, board members and major holders
No open-market purchases or sales in the last 6 months.
Source: Form 4 filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Grants, option exercises, gifts and tax withholdings are hidden. Not a recommendation to buy.
What happened at Ellington Financial
The key events of the last six months from our own data. A click takes you to the matching card.
Sector comparison
327 rated companies in Real Estate
- This company
- 56
- Sector median
- 55
Categories against the sector median
The median is the middle value: half of the companies in the sector lie above it, half below. Categories with too few comparable companies are left out.
Competitors in REIT (Mortgage)
The next larger and next smaller companies by market value
- Starwood Property TrustSTWD $4.36B34
- Dynex CapitalDX $2.71B42
- Blackstone Mortgage TrustBXMT $1.83B38
- ARMOUR Residential REITARR $1.72B31
- Ladder CapitalLADR $1.09B48
- Orchid Island CapitalORC $926.36M45
- PennyMac Mortgage Investment TrustPMT $650.53M42
- MFA FinancialMFA $590.13M42
ETFs that hold Ellington Financial
Held by 10 ETFs on Xetra. Shown per index: the ETF with the largest weight.
| ETF | Weight | Cost | Fund size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global X Superdividend UCITS ETF USDUDIV | 0.99% | 0.45% | €842.65M |
| iShares S&P SmallCap 600 UCITS ETFIUS3 | 0.06% | 0.30% | €2.28B |
| Xtrackers Russell 2000 UCITS ETF 1CXRS2 | 0.05% | 0.30% | €2.17B |
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| State Street SPDR Russell 2000 U.S. Small Cap UCITS ETF (Acc)ZPRR | 0.05% | 0.30% | €4.22B |
| L&G Russell 2000 US Small Cap Quality UCITS ETFETLZ | 0.04% | 0.30% | €185.82M |
| State Street SPDR MSCI USA Small Cap Value Weighted UCITS ETFZPRV | 0.02% | 0.30% | €944.34M |
| iShares MSCI World Small Cap UCITS ETFIUSN | 0.01% | 0.35% | €8.19B |
| UBS MSCI USA Select Factor Mix UCITS ETF USD accUSUE | 0.00% | 0.25% | €175.89M |
Holdings as reported by the funds via FMP, excluding swap ETFs (their holdings are only collateral).
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 12 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 5 Nov 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.