Discovery Mining stock: fair value
DSV.TOThe fair value of Discovery Mining under our model is $18.51, the price is 62% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Significantly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $12.34 and expensive above $37.02 (uncertainty very high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $31.57 (cash-flow model) and $5.45 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.8%. At 9.8% the fair value would be $15.62, at 7.8% it would be $22.86.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the sector P/E (15.9).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 3.8%. Discounted at 8.8% (floor: government bond yield 3.8% plus 5 percentage points, since beta 0.88 times the risk premium would give less); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $31.57 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 8.8%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 8.8%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $485.47M | extrapolated at 59.8% | 0.9189 | $446.08M |
| 2027 | $694.16M | extrapolated at 43.0% | 0.8443 | $586.08M |
| 2028 | $911.01M | extrapolated at 31.2% | 0.7758 | $706.77M |
| 2029 | $1.12B | extrapolated at 23.0% | 0.7129 | $798.91M |
| 2030 | $1.31B | extrapolated at 17.3% | 0.6550 | $860.8M |
| 2031 | $1.49B | extrapolated at 13.2% | 0.6019 | $895.62M |
| 2032 | $1.64B | extrapolated at 10.4% | 0.5530 | $908.63M |
| 2033 | $1.78B | extrapolated at 8.4% | 0.5082 | $905.35M |
| 2034 | $1.91B | extrapolated at 7.0% | 0.4669 | $890.58M |
| 2035 | $2.02B | extrapolated at 6.1% | 0.4291 | $868.14M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $7.87B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 3.8%) / (8.8% − 3.8%) | $42.02B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4291) | $18.03B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $25.89B |
| Shares (diluted) | 820.34M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $31.57 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $0.34 |
| × 15.9 (sector P/E) | $5.45 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $18.51 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = CA$1.4249)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 3 Oct 2025)
- Valuation signal Undervalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.