Distribution Solutions Group stock: fair value
DSGRThe fair value of Distribution Solutions Group under our model is $42.40, the price is 17% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Modestly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $30.29 and expensive above $70.67 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
Calculated with a cost of equity of 9.3%. At 10.3% the fair value would be $35.52, at 8.3% it would be $52.36.
Where the number comes from
From the cash-flow model alone; the profit includes one-off items, so there is no industry value.
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 3.8%. Discounted at 9.3% (government bond yield 3.8% plus beta 1.23 times a risk premium of 4.5%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $42.40 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 9.3%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 9.3%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $70.04M | extrapolated at 28.8% | 0.9147 | $64.06M |
| 2027 | $84.95M | extrapolated at 21.3% | 0.8366 | $71.07M |
| 2028 | $98.58M | extrapolated at 16.1% | 0.7652 | $75.44M |
| 2029 | $110.79M | extrapolated at 12.4% | 0.6999 | $77.54M |
| 2030 | $121.67M | extrapolated at 9.8% | 0.6402 | $77.89M |
| 2031 | $131.42M | extrapolated at 8.0% | 0.5855 | $76.95M |
| 2032 | $140.31M | extrapolated at 6.8% | 0.5356 | $75.15M |
| 2033 | $148.57M | extrapolated at 5.9% | 0.4899 | $72.78M |
| 2034 | $156.39M | extrapolated at 5.3% | 0.4481 | $70.08M |
| 2035 | $163.96M | extrapolated at 4.8% | 0.4098 | $67.19M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $728.15M |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 3.8%) / (9.3% − 3.8%) | $3.1B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4098) | $1.27B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $2B |
| Shares (diluted) | 47.09M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $42.40 |
| Fair value (from the cash flow model alone) | $42.40 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Weak, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 27 Feb 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.