Citycon stock: fair value
CTY1S.HEThe fair value of Citycon under our model is $7.78, the price is 57% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Significantly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $5.56 and expensive above $12.96 (uncertainty high, one part of the fair value is more than twice the other).
The two parts of the fair value come to $12.46 (cash-flow model) and $3.09 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 11.8%. At 12.8% the fair value would be $7.09, at 10.8% it would be $8.64.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (11).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 2.6%. Discounted at 11.8% (government bond yield 2.6% plus beta 2 times a risk premium of 4.6%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $12.46 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 11.8%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 11.8%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $105.71M | extrapolated at 44.2% | 0.8945 | $94.55M |
| 2027 | $139.23M | extrapolated at 31.7% | 0.8000 | $111.39M |
| 2028 | $171.23M | extrapolated at 23.0% | 0.7156 | $122.53M |
| 2029 | $200.13M | extrapolated at 16.9% | 0.6401 | $128.1M |
| 2030 | $225.34M | extrapolated at 12.6% | 0.5725 | $129.01M |
| 2031 | $246.98M | extrapolated at 9.6% | 0.5121 | $126.48M |
| 2032 | $265.53M | extrapolated at 7.5% | 0.4580 | $121.62M |
| 2033 | $281.57M | extrapolated at 6.0% | 0.4097 | $115.36M |
| 2034 | $295.69M | extrapolated at 5.0% | 0.3665 | $108.36M |
| 2035 | $308.4M | extrapolated at 4.3% | 0.3278 | $101.09M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $1.16B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 2.6%) / (11.8% − 2.6%) | $3.45B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.3278) | $1.13B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $2.29B |
| Shares (diluted) | 183.60M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $12.46 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $0.28 |
| × 11 (industry P/E) | $3.09 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $7.78 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = €0.9024)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 24 Oct 2026)
- Valuation signal Undervalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.