CTT - Correios De Portugal stock: fair value
CTT.LSThe fair value of CTT - Correios De Portugal under our model is $15.06, the price is 65% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Significantly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $10.76 and expensive above $25.10 (uncertainty high, one part of the fair value is more than twice the other).
The two parts of the fair value come to $23.20 (cash-flow model) and $6.91 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is below both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 10.2%. At 11.2% the fair value would be $13.61, at 9.2% it would be $16.97.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (21).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 2.8%. Discounted at 10.2% (government bond yield 2.8% plus beta 1.28 times a risk premium of 5.8%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $23.20 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 10.2%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 10.2%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $176.29M | extrapolated at 20.3% | 0.9074 | $159.96M |
| 2027 | $202.8M | extrapolated at 15.0% | 0.8233 | $166.97M |
| 2028 | $225.86M | extrapolated at 11.4% | 0.7471 | $168.73M |
| 2029 | $245.74M | extrapolated at 8.8% | 0.6779 | $166.58M |
| 2030 | $262.97M | extrapolated at 7.0% | 0.6151 | $161.74M |
| 2031 | $278.09M | extrapolated at 5.8% | 0.5581 | $155.21M |
| 2032 | $291.64M | extrapolated at 4.9% | 0.5064 | $147.69M |
| 2033 | $304.06M | extrapolated at 4.3% | 0.4595 | $139.72M |
| 2034 | $315.69M | extrapolated at 3.8% | 0.4169 | $131.63M |
| 2035 | $326.82M | extrapolated at 3.5% | 0.3783 | $123.64M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $1.52B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 2.8%) / (10.2% − 2.8%) | $4.55B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.3783) | $1.72B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $3.24B |
| Shares (diluted) | 139.75M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $23.20 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $0.33 |
| × 21 (industry P/E) | $6.91 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $15.06 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = €0.9024)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 2 May 2025)
- Valuation signal Undervalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.