Constellation Software stock: fair value
CSU.TOThe fair value of Constellation Software under our model is $2,220.38, the price is 9% above.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 12 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Fairly valuedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $1,585.99 and expensive above $3,700.64 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $2,965.35 (cash-flow model) and $1,475.42 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 9.7%. At 10.7% the fair value would be $1,997.86, at 8.7% it would be $2,535.04.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (32.8).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 3.8%. Discounted at 9.7% (government bond yield 3.8% plus beta 1.38 times a risk premium of 4.2%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $2,965.35 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 9.7%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 9.7%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.98B | extrapolated at 15.5% | 0.9117 | $2.71B |
| 2027 | $3.33B | extrapolated at 12.0% | 0.8312 | $2.77B |
| 2028 | $3.65B | extrapolated at 9.5% | 0.7578 | $2.77B |
| 2029 | $3.94B | extrapolated at 7.8% | 0.6909 | $2.72B |
| 2030 | $4.2B | extrapolated at 6.6% | 0.6299 | $2.64B |
| 2031 | $4.44B | extrapolated at 5.8% | 0.5743 | $2.55B |
| 2032 | $4.67B | extrapolated at 5.2% | 0.5236 | $2.45B |
| 2033 | $4.89B | extrapolated at 4.8% | 0.4774 | $2.34B |
| 2034 | $5.11B | extrapolated at 4.5% | 0.4352 | $2.23B |
| 2035 | $5.33B | extrapolated at 4.3% | 0.3968 | $2.12B |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $25.29B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 3.8%) / (9.7% − 3.8%) | $94.63B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.3968) | $37.55B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $62.84B |
| Shares (diluted) | 21.19M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $2,965.35 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $45.00 |
| × 32.8 (industry P/E) | $1,475.42 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $2,220.38 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 12 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 11 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 11 Nov 2026 ($1 = CA$1.4235)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Strong, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 2 Oct 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.