Canadian Natural Resources stock: fair value
CNQThe fair value of Canadian Natural Resources under our model is $54.58, the price is 10% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Fairly valuedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $41.99 and expensive above $77.97 (uncertainty medium, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $56.18 (cash-flow model) and $52.98 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is slightly below both parts; given how much the stock swings, that still counts as fair.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.2%. At 9.2% the fair value would be $49.96, at 7.2% it would be $61.50.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (11.1).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 3.2%. Discounted at 8.2% (floor: government bond yield 3.2% plus 5 percentage points, since beta 0.8 times the risk premium would give less); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $56.18 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 8.2%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 8.2%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $6.48B | extrapolated at −2.5% | 0.9246 | $5.99B |
| 2027 | $6.43B | extrapolated at −0.8% | 0.8550 | $5.5B |
| 2028 | $6.46B | extrapolated at 0.4% | 0.7905 | $5.1B |
| 2029 | $6.53B | extrapolated at 1.2% | 0.7310 | $4.78B |
| 2030 | $6.65B | extrapolated at 1.8% | 0.6759 | $4.5B |
| 2031 | $6.8B | extrapolated at 2.2% | 0.6249 | $4.25B |
| 2032 | $6.97B | extrapolated at 2.5% | 0.5778 | $4.03B |
| 2033 | $7.15B | extrapolated at 2.7% | 0.5343 | $3.82B |
| 2034 | $7.36B | extrapolated at 2.8% | 0.4940 | $3.63B |
| 2035 | $7.57B | extrapolated at 2.9% | 0.4568 | $3.46B |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $45.05B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 3.2%) / (8.2% − 3.2%) | $156.2B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4568) | $71.35B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $116.41B |
| Shares (diluted) | 2.07B |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $56.18 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $4.79 |
| × 11.1 (industry P/E) | $52.98 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $54.58 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = CA$1.4249)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Strong, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 24 Oct 2025)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.