China Gold International Resources stock: fair value
CGG.TOThe fair value of China Gold International Resources under our model is $8.73, the price is 154% above.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 12 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Significantly overvaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $5.82 and expensive above $17.45 (uncertainty very high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $10.64 (cash-flow model) and $6.81 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is above both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.8%. At 9.8% the fair value would be $7.80, at 7.8% it would be $10.12.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the sector P/E (15.5).
Ten-year cash-flow model: 3 years from analyst estimates, then extrapolated until growth reaches 3.8% (five-year average government bond yield). Discounted at 8.8% (floor: government bond yield 3.8% plus 5 percentage points, since beta 0.9 times the risk premium would give less).
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $10.64 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 8.8%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 8.8%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $156.81M | Estimate, 2 analysts | 0.9189 | $144.09M |
| 2027 | $162.07M | Estimate, 2 analysts | 0.8443 | $136.83M |
| 2028 | $191.26M | Estimate, 3 analysts | 0.7758 | $148.38M |
| 2029 | $213.39M | extrapolated at 11.6% | 0.7129 | $152.12M |
| 2030 | $233.12M | extrapolated at 9.3% | 0.6550 | $152.7M |
| 2031 | $250.89M | extrapolated at 7.6% | 0.6019 | $151M |
| 2032 | $267.16M | extrapolated at 6.5% | 0.5530 | $147.75M |
| 2033 | $282.35M | extrapolated at 5.7% | 0.5082 | $143.48M |
| 2034 | $296.84M | extrapolated at 5.1% | 0.4669 | $138.61M |
| 2035 | $310.91M | extrapolated at 4.7% | 0.4291 | $133.4M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $1.45B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 3.8%) / (8.8% − 3.8%) | $6.46B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4291) | $2.77B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $4.22B |
| Shares (diluted) | 396.41M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $10.64 |
| Earnings per share at the average net margin (median of the last ten fiscal years applied to revenue of the last twelve months) | $0.44 |
| × 15.5 (sector P/E) | $6.81 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $8.73 |
Earnings are at a cyclical peak. Free cash flow in each year is therefore the average margin of the last ten fiscal years times revenue, in the years with estimates times estimated revenue. The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 12 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 11 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 11 Nov 2026 ($1 = CA$1.4235)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Strong, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 17 Apr 2026)
- Valuation signal Overvalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.