BAE Systems stock: fair value
BSP.DEThe fair value of BAE Systems under our model is $24.22, the price is 4% above.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Fairly valuedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $18.63 and expensive above $34.60 (uncertainty medium, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $19.46 (cash-flow model) and $28.97 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 9.3%. At 10.3% the fair value would be $22.71, at 8.3% it would be $26.41.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (31.3).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 3.8%. Discounted at 9.3% (government bond yield 3.8% plus beta 1.09 times a risk premium of 5%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $19.46 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 9.3%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 9.3%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $3.17B | extrapolated at 4.4% | 0.9152 | $2.9B |
| 2027 | $3.3B | extrapolated at 4.3% | 0.8375 | $2.76B |
| 2028 | $3.44B | extrapolated at 4.1% | 0.7664 | $2.63B |
| 2029 | $3.57B | extrapolated at 4.0% | 0.7014 | $2.51B |
| 2030 | $3.72B | extrapolated at 4.0% | 0.6419 | $2.39B |
| 2031 | $3.86B | extrapolated at 3.9% | 0.5874 | $2.27B |
| 2032 | $4.01B | extrapolated at 3.9% | 0.5376 | $2.16B |
| 2033 | $4.17B | extrapolated at 3.9% | 0.4920 | $2.05B |
| 2034 | $4.33B | extrapolated at 3.9% | 0.4502 | $1.95B |
| 2035 | $4.5B | extrapolated at 3.9% | 0.4120 | $1.85B |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $23.47B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 3.8%) / (9.3% − 3.8%) | $85.62B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4120) | $35.28B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $58.74B |
| Shares (diluted) | 3.02B |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $19.46 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $0.93 |
| × 31.3 (industry P/E) | $28.97 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $24.22 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = €0.9024, $1 = £0.7544)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 6 Nov 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.