BillionToOne stock: fair value
BLLNThe fair value of BillionToOne under our model is $30.25, the price is 266% above.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Significantly overvaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $20.17 and expensive above $60.50 (uncertainty very high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $30.53 (cash-flow model) and $29.97 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is above both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 9.2%. At 10.2% the fair value would be $27.57, at 8.2% it would be $34.19.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (33.7).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 3.8%. Discounted at 9.2% (government bond yield 3.8% plus beta 1.19 times a risk premium of 4.5%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $30.53 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 9.2%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 9.2%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $29.59M | extrapolated at 66.5% | 0.9161 | $27.11M |
| 2027 | $43.7M | extrapolated at 47.7% | 0.8393 | $36.68M |
| 2028 | $58.78M | extrapolated at 34.5% | 0.7689 | $45.2M |
| 2029 | $73.66M | extrapolated at 25.3% | 0.7044 | $51.89M |
| 2030 | $87.56M | extrapolated at 18.9% | 0.6454 | $56.51M |
| 2031 | $100.13M | extrapolated at 14.4% | 0.5912 | $59.2M |
| 2032 | $111.35M | extrapolated at 11.2% | 0.5416 | $60.31M |
| 2033 | $121.35M | extrapolated at 9.0% | 0.4962 | $60.22M |
| 2034 | $130.38M | extrapolated at 7.4% | 0.4546 | $59.27M |
| 2035 | $138.67M | extrapolated at 6.4% | 0.4165 | $57.75M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $514.14M |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 3.8%) / (9.2% − 3.8%) | $2.7B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4165) | $1.13B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $1.64B |
| Shares (diluted) | 53.73M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $30.53 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $0.89 |
| × 33.7 (industry P/E) | $29.97 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $30.25 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 18 Oct 2026)
- Valuation signal Overvalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.