BHP Group stock: fair value
BHPThe fair value of BHP Group under our model is $83.39, the price is 3% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Fairly valuedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $64.14 and expensive above $119.12 (uncertainty medium, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $91.12 (cash-flow model) and $75.65 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 9%. At 10% the fair value would be $76.25, at 8% it would be $93.94.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (19.5).
Ten-year cash-flow model: 3 years from analyst estimates, then extrapolated until growth reaches 3.8% (five-year average government bond yield). Discounted at 9.0% (government bond yield 3.8% plus beta 1.22 times a risk premium of 4.2%).
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $91.12 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 9.0%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 9.0%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $15.16B | Estimate, 4 analysts | 0.9175 | $13.91B |
| 2028 | $16.46B | Estimate, 4 analysts | 0.8418 | $13.85B |
| 2029 | $13.37B | Estimate, 4 analysts | 0.7723 | $10.33B |
| 2030 | $13.54B | extrapolated at 1.3% | 0.7086 | $9.6B |
| 2031 | $13.82B | extrapolated at 2.1% | 0.6501 | $8.99B |
| 2032 | $14.18B | extrapolated at 2.6% | 0.5965 | $8.46B |
| 2033 | $14.6B | extrapolated at 3.0% | 0.5473 | $7.99B |
| 2034 | $15.07B | extrapolated at 3.2% | 0.5021 | $7.57B |
| 2035 | $15.58B | extrapolated at 3.4% | 0.4607 | $7.18B |
| 2036 | $16.14B | extrapolated at 3.5% | 0.4227 | $6.82B |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $94.69B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2036 × (1 + 3.8%) / (9.0% − 3.8%) | $324.5B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4227) | $137.16B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $231.85B |
| Shares (diluted) | 2.54B |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $91.12 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $3.87 |
| × 19.5 (industry P/E) | $75.65 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $83.39 |
In the years with estimates, the model derives free cash flow from estimated earnings and revenue, because there are no estimates for the cash flow itself. The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2026, period end 30 Jun 2026
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 11 Sep 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.