Budimex stock: fair value
BDX.WAThe fair value of Budimex under our model is $89.69, the price is 115% above.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Significantly overvaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $64.06 and expensive above $149.48 (uncertainty high, one part of the fair value is more than twice the other).
The two parts of the fair value come to $39.81 (cash-flow model) and $139.57 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is above both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 10.9%. At 11.9% the fair value would be $86.73, at 9.9% it would be $93.99.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (19.2).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 5.6%. Discounted at 10.9% (government bond yield 5.6% plus beta 1.01 times a risk premium of 5.3%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $39.81 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 10.9%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 10.9%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $77.52M | extrapolated at −12.9% | 0.9013 | $69.87M |
| 2027 | $71.82M | extrapolated at −7.4% | 0.8124 | $58.34M |
| 2028 | $69.31M | extrapolated at −3.5% | 0.7322 | $50.75M |
| 2029 | $68.78M | extrapolated at −0.8% | 0.6600 | $45.39M |
| 2030 | $69.55M | extrapolated at 1.1% | 0.5949 | $41.38M |
| 2031 | $71.26M | extrapolated at 2.5% | 0.5362 | $38.21M |
| 2032 | $73.68M | extrapolated at 3.4% | 0.4833 | $35.61M |
| 2033 | $76.65M | extrapolated at 4.0% | 0.4356 | $33.39M |
| 2034 | $80.1M | extrapolated at 4.5% | 0.3926 | $31.45M |
| 2035 | $83.96M | extrapolated at 4.8% | 0.3539 | $29.71M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $434.1M |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 5.6%) / (10.9% − 5.6%) | $1.65B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.3539) | $582.18M |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $1.02B |
| Shares (diluted) | 25.53M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $39.81 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $7.28 |
| × 19.2 (industry P/E) | $139.57 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $89.69 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = PLN 3.9742)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Strong, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 4 Nov 2026)
- Valuation signal Overvalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.