Aura Minerals stock: fair value
AUGOThe fair value of Aura Minerals under our model is $38.97, the price is 100% above.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Modestly overvaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $25.98 and expensive above $77.95 (uncertainty very high, based on the price swings of the past year).
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.8%. At 9.8% the fair value would be $32.27, at 7.8% it would be $49.04.
Where the number comes from
From the cash-flow model alone; the profit includes one-off items, so there is no industry value.
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 3.8%. Discounted at 8.8% (floor: government bond yield 3.8% plus 5 percentage points, since beta 0.9 times the risk premium would give less); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $38.97 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 8.8%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 8.8%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $125.62M | extrapolated at 18.6% | 0.9189 | $115.43M |
| 2027 | $143.44M | extrapolated at 14.2% | 0.8443 | $121.11M |
| 2028 | $159.34M | extrapolated at 11.1% | 0.7758 | $123.62M |
| 2029 | $173.53M | extrapolated at 8.9% | 0.7129 | $123.7M |
| 2030 | $186.34M | extrapolated at 7.4% | 0.6550 | $122.06M |
| 2031 | $198.11M | extrapolated at 6.3% | 0.6019 | $119.24M |
| 2032 | $209.15M | extrapolated at 5.6% | 0.5530 | $115.67M |
| 2033 | $219.71M | extrapolated at 5.1% | 0.5082 | $111.65M |
| 2034 | $230M | extrapolated at 4.7% | 0.4669 | $107.4M |
| 2035 | $240.18M | extrapolated at 4.4% | 0.4291 | $103.05M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $1.16B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 3.8%) / (8.8% − 3.8%) | $4.99B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4291) | $2.14B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $3.3B |
| Shares (diluted) | 84.75M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $38.97 |
| Fair value (from the cash flow model alone) | $38.97 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Strong since 10 Nov 2026, previously Neutral
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 13 Nov 2026, previously Overvalued
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.