Arko stock: fair value
ARKOThe fair value of Arko under our model is $5.00, the price is 18% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Modestly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $3.57 and expensive above $8.33 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $8.76 (cash-flow model) and $1.24 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 12.8%. At 13.8% the fair value would be $4.55, at 11.8% it would be $5.56.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (22.8).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 3.8%. Discounted at 12.8% (government bond yield 3.8% plus beta 2 times a risk premium of 4.5%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $8.76 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 12.8%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 12.8%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $82.2M | extrapolated at 9.5% | 0.8869 | $72.9M |
| 2027 | $88.59M | extrapolated at 7.8% | 0.7866 | $69.69M |
| 2028 | $94.43M | extrapolated at 6.6% | 0.6977 | $65.88M |
| 2029 | $99.87M | extrapolated at 5.8% | 0.6188 | $61.8M |
| 2030 | $105.05M | extrapolated at 5.2% | 0.5488 | $57.65M |
| 2031 | $110.07M | extrapolated at 4.8% | 0.4867 | $53.58M |
| 2032 | $115.01M | extrapolated at 4.5% | 0.4317 | $49.65M |
| 2033 | $119.95M | extrapolated at 4.3% | 0.3829 | $45.93M |
| 2034 | $124.94M | extrapolated at 4.2% | 0.3396 | $42.43M |
| 2035 | $130.01M | extrapolated at 4.1% | 0.3012 | $39.16M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $558.66M |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 3.8%) / (12.8% − 3.8%) | $1.51B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.3012) | $455.79M |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $1.01B |
| Shares (diluted) | 115.85M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $8.76 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $0.05 |
| × 22.8 (industry P/E) | $1.24 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $5.00 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Weak, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 28 Feb 2025)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.