AQ Group stock: fair value
AQ.STThe fair value of AQ Group under our model is $25.34, the price is 11% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Fairly valuedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $19.49 and expensive above $36.19 (uncertainty medium, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $29.18 (cash-flow model) and $21.49 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8%. At 9% the fair value would be $23.06, at 7% it would be $28.55.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (26.1).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 2.2%. Discounted at 8.0% (government bond yield 2.2% plus beta 1.39 times a risk premium of 4.2%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $29.18 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 8.0%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 8.0%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $91.8M | extrapolated at 32.0% | 0.9256 | $84.96M |
| 2027 | $112.99M | extrapolated at 23.1% | 0.8567 | $96.79M |
| 2028 | $131.98M | extrapolated at 16.8% | 0.7929 | $104.65M |
| 2029 | $148.38M | extrapolated at 12.4% | 0.7339 | $108.89M |
| 2030 | $162.25M | extrapolated at 9.4% | 0.6793 | $110.21M |
| 2031 | $173.93M | extrapolated at 7.2% | 0.6287 | $109.35M |
| 2032 | $183.83M | extrapolated at 5.7% | 0.5819 | $106.97M |
| 2033 | $192.36M | extrapolated at 4.6% | 0.5386 | $103.6M |
| 2034 | $199.86M | extrapolated at 3.9% | 0.4985 | $99.63M |
| 2035 | $206.63M | extrapolated at 3.4% | 0.4614 | $95.34M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $1.02B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 2.2%) / (8.0% − 2.2%) | $3.6B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4614) | $1.66B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $2.68B |
| Shares (diluted) | 91.93M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $29.18 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $0.82 |
| × 26.1 (industry P/E) | $21.49 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $25.34 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = SEK 9.9729)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Strong since 11 Nov 2026, previously Neutral
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.