Valerio Therapeutics stock: fair value
ALVIO.PAThe fair value of Valerio Therapeutics under our model is $0.19, the price is 161% above.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Valuation signal
Significantly overvaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $0.13 and expensive above $0.38 (uncertainty very high, based on the price swings of the past year).
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.9%. At 9.9% the fair value would be $0.16, at 7.9% it would be $0.23.
Where the number comes from
From the cash-flow model alone; without earnings there is no industry value.
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 2.8%. Discounted at 8.9% (government bond yield 2.8% plus beta 1.38 times a risk premium of 4.5%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $0.19 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 8.9%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 8.9%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.53M | extrapolated at 12.2% | 0.9181 | $1.41M |
| 2027 | $1.68M | extrapolated at 9.4% | 0.8428 | $1.41M |
| 2028 | $1.8M | extrapolated at 7.4% | 0.7738 | $1.39M |
| 2029 | $1.91M | extrapolated at 6.0% | 0.7104 | $1.36M |
| 2030 | $2.01M | extrapolated at 5.1% | 0.6522 | $1.31M |
| 2031 | $2.09M | extrapolated at 4.4% | 0.5987 | $1.25M |
| 2032 | $2.18M | extrapolated at 3.9% | 0.5497 | $1.2M |
| 2033 | $2.25M | extrapolated at 3.6% | 0.5046 | $1.14M |
| 2034 | $2.33M | extrapolated at 3.3% | 0.4633 | $1.08M |
| 2035 | $2.4M | extrapolated at 3.2% | 0.4253 | $1.02M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $12.56M |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 2.8%) / (8.9% − 2.8%) | $40.16M |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4253) | $17.08M |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $29.65M |
| Shares (diluted) | 154.36M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $0.19 |
| Fair value (from the cash flow model alone) | $0.19 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = €0.9024)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Weak, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 31 May 2024)
- Valuation signal Overvalued since 10 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.