Allgeier stock: fair value
AEIN.DEThe fair value of Allgeier under our model is $21.32, the price is 29% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Possible value trapIn our model the price counts as cheap below $15.23 and expensive above $35.53 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $30.91 (cash-flow model) and $11.72 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.5%. At 9.5% the fair value would be $19.23, at 7.5% it would be $24.17.
Possible value trap: looks cheap, but score below 50, weak growth.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (18.8).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 2.1%. Discounted at 8.5% (government bond yield 2.1% plus beta 1.51 times a risk premium of 4.2%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $30.91 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 8.5%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 8.5%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $22.29M | extrapolated at 1.1% | 0.9213 | $20.53M |
| 2027 | $22.61M | extrapolated at 1.4% | 0.8488 | $19.19M |
| 2028 | $22.98M | extrapolated at 1.7% | 0.7820 | $17.97M |
| 2029 | $23.39M | extrapolated at 1.8% | 0.7204 | $16.85M |
| 2030 | $23.84M | extrapolated at 1.9% | 0.6637 | $15.82M |
| 2031 | $24.31M | extrapolated at 2.0% | 0.6115 | $14.86M |
| 2032 | $24.8M | extrapolated at 2.0% | 0.5634 | $13.97M |
| 2033 | $25.31M | extrapolated at 2.1% | 0.5190 | $13.14M |
| 2034 | $25.84M | extrapolated at 2.1% | 0.4782 | $12.36M |
| 2035 | $26.38M | extrapolated at 2.1% | 0.4406 | $11.62M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $156.32M |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 2.1%) / (8.5% − 2.1%) | $420.84M |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4406) | $185.4M |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $341.73M |
| Shares (diluted) | 11.06M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $30.91 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $0.62 |
| × 18.8 (industry P/E) | $11.72 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $21.32 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = €0.9024)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Weak, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 6 Feb 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.