Advantage Solutions stock: fair value
ADVThe fair value of Advantage Solutions under our model is $16.48, the price is 91% above.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Modestly overvaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $10.99 and expensive above $32.96 (uncertainty very high, based on the price swings of the past year).
Calculated with a cost of equity of 12.8%. At 13.8% the fair value would be $14.91, at 11.8% it would be $18.44.
Where the number comes from
From the cash-flow model alone; without earnings there is no industry value.
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 3.8%. Discounted at 12.8% (government bond yield 3.8% plus beta 2 times a risk premium of 4.5%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $16.48 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 12.8%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 12.8%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $24.2M | extrapolated at −10.6% | 0.8869 | $21.47M |
| 2027 | $22.68M | extrapolated at −6.3% | 0.7866 | $17.84M |
| 2028 | $21.95M | extrapolated at −3.2% | 0.6977 | $15.31M |
| 2029 | $21.7M | extrapolated at −1.1% | 0.6188 | $13.43M |
| 2030 | $21.78M | extrapolated at 0.4% | 0.5488 | $11.95M |
| 2031 | $22.09M | extrapolated at 1.4% | 0.4867 | $10.75M |
| 2032 | $22.56M | extrapolated at 2.1% | 0.4317 | $9.74M |
| 2033 | $23.15M | extrapolated at 2.6% | 0.3829 | $8.87M |
| 2034 | $23.85M | extrapolated at 3.0% | 0.3396 | $8.1M |
| 2035 | $24.62M | extrapolated at 3.3% | 0.3012 | $7.42M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $124.87M |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 3.8%) / (12.8% − 3.8%) | $286.62M |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.3012) | $86.32M |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $211.2M |
| Shares (diluted) | 12.82M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $16.48 |
| Fair value (from the cash flow model alone) | $16.48 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Weak, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 30 Apr 2024)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 11 Nov 2026, previously Overvalued
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.