Adtran Networks stock: fair value
ADV.DEThe fair value of Adtran Networks under our model is $14.91, the price is 55% above.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Modestly overvaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $10.65 and expensive above $24.84 (uncertainty high, one part of the fair value is more than twice the other).
The two parts of the fair value come to $23.89 (cash-flow model) and $5.92 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 7.2%. At 8.2% the fair value would be $12.93, at 6.2% it would be $17.85.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (32.1).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 2.1%. Discounted at 7.2% (government bond yield 2.1% plus beta 1.21 times a risk premium of 4.2%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $23.89 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 7.2%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 7.2%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $58.02M | extrapolated at 6.9% | 0.9325 | $54.1M |
| 2027 | $61.18M | extrapolated at 5.4% | 0.8695 | $53.19M |
| 2028 | $63.9M | extrapolated at 4.5% | 0.8108 | $51.81M |
| 2029 | $66.3M | extrapolated at 3.8% | 0.7560 | $50.13M |
| 2030 | $68.47M | extrapolated at 3.3% | 0.7050 | $48.27M |
| 2031 | $70.48M | extrapolated at 2.9% | 0.6574 | $46.33M |
| 2032 | $72.38M | extrapolated at 2.7% | 0.6130 | $44.37M |
| 2033 | $74.21M | extrapolated at 2.5% | 0.5716 | $42.42M |
| 2034 | $76M | extrapolated at 2.4% | 0.5330 | $40.51M |
| 2035 | $77.77M | extrapolated at 2.3% | 0.4970 | $38.65M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $469.77M |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 2.1%) / (7.2% − 2.1%) | $1.56B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4970) | $773.69M |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $1.24B |
| Shares (diluted) | 52.05M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $23.89 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $0.18 |
| × 32.1 (industry P/E) | $5.92 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $14.91 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = €0.9024)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Weak, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 31 Mar 2024)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.