ADT stock: fair value
ADTThe fair value of ADT under our model is $23.58, the price is 58% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Possible value trapIn our model the price counts as cheap below $16.85 and expensive above $39.31 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $26.50 (cash-flow model) and $20.67 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is below both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 10.3%. At 11.3% the fair value would be $21.81, at 9.3% it would be $26.00.
Possible value trap: looks cheap, but high risk.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (24.3).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 3.8%. Discounted at 10.3% (government bond yield 3.8% plus beta 1.46 times a risk premium of 4.4%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $26.50 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 10.3%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 10.3%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.25B | extrapolated at 4.6% | 0.9065 | $1.13B |
| 2027 | $1.3B | extrapolated at 4.3% | 0.8217 | $1.07B |
| 2028 | $1.36B | extrapolated at 4.2% | 0.7448 | $1.01B |
| 2029 | $1.41B | extrapolated at 4.1% | 0.6751 | $955.3M |
| 2030 | $1.47B | extrapolated at 4.0% | 0.6120 | $900.6M |
| 2031 | $1.53B | extrapolated at 4.0% | 0.5547 | $848.6M |
| 2032 | $1.59B | extrapolated at 3.9% | 0.5028 | $799.33M |
| 2033 | $1.65B | extrapolated at 3.9% | 0.4558 | $752.74M |
| 2034 | $1.72B | extrapolated at 3.9% | 0.4132 | $708.74M |
| 2035 | $1.78B | extrapolated at 3.9% | 0.3745 | $667.23M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $8.85B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 3.8%) / (10.3% − 3.8%) | $28.5B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.3745) | $10.68B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $19.53B |
| Shares (diluted) | 736.76M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $26.50 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $0.85 |
| × 24.3 (industry P/E) | $20.67 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $23.58 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 3 Jan 2025)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.