Acadia Pharmaceuticals stock: fair value
ACADThe fair value of Acadia Pharmaceuticals under our model is $39.79, the price is 54% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Significantly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $28.42 and expensive above $66.32 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $34.75 (cash-flow model) and $44.84 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is below both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 9.3%. At 10.3% the fair value would be $36.87, at 8.3% it would be $44.04.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (21.7).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 3.8%. Discounted at 9.3% (government bond yield 3.8% plus beta 1.23 times a risk premium of 4.5%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $34.75 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 9.3%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 9.3%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $144M | extrapolated at 52.0% | 0.9147 | $131.72M |
| 2027 | $198.06M | extrapolated at 37.5% | 0.8367 | $165.72M |
| 2028 | $252.38M | extrapolated at 27.4% | 0.7654 | $193.16M |
| 2029 | $303.73M | extrapolated at 20.3% | 0.7001 | $212.64M |
| 2030 | $350.48M | extrapolated at 15.4% | 0.6404 | $224.45M |
| 2031 | $392.27M | extrapolated at 11.9% | 0.5858 | $229.79M |
| 2032 | $429.52M | extrapolated at 9.5% | 0.5358 | $230.15M |
| 2033 | $463.01M | extrapolated at 7.8% | 0.4901 | $226.94M |
| 2034 | $493.59M | extrapolated at 6.6% | 0.4483 | $221.3M |
| 2035 | $522.09M | extrapolated at 5.8% | 0.4101 | $214.12M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $2.05B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 3.8%) / (9.3% − 3.8%) | $9.87B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4101) | $4.05B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $6.1B |
| Shares (diluted) | 175.47M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $34.75 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $2.06 |
| × 21.7 (industry P/E) | $44.84 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $39.79 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 18 Sep 2026)
- Valuation signal Undervalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.