AAON stock
AAONNASDAQAAON, Inc., IndustrialsISIN US0003602069
60Score 60 out of 100, Neutral
Price and trend
54 / 100
Price history
−23% in one yearThe chart shows daily closes over 20 years, adjusted for stock splits and without dividends. Click into the chart to set a price alert at that price.
Below the 200-day line: the price is 18% below it.
Since September 2026 the 50-day line has been below the 200-day line; the trend has turned down.
Normal: the price is neither overheated nor sold off (RSI 59).
The price is 47% below its 52-week high. Largest decline in 20 years: 63% (June 2026 to November 2026).
Chart figures for advanced users
- SMA 50$76.82
- Average price of the last 50 trading days, shows the short-term trend.
- SMA 200$96.56
- Average price of the last 200 trading days, shows the long-term trend.
- RSI (14)59
- Relative strength over the last 14 days on a scale from 0 to 100. Above 70 the price counts as overheated, below 30 as sharply fallen.
- MACDabove the signal line
- Compares a fast and a slow price average. Above its signal line momentum is rising, below it momentum is fading.
- Support$54.42
- The lowest closing price of the last twelve months.
- Resistance$148.25
- The highest closing price of the last twelve months.
Snapshot
Computed from the data by fixed rules, no AI
- AAON, Inc. belongs to the Industrial (Machinery) industry (United States) and, with a market value of $6.5B, is number 91 of 194 companies in its industry on MEQIRI.
- In fiscal 2025 it reported revenue of $1.44B (up 20.1% year on year) and earnings of $107.59M (down 36.2%).
- For fiscal 2026, analysts expect on average revenue of $2.31B (up 60%) and adjusted earnings per share of $2.37 (up 75.8%).
Show more
- MEQIRI Score 60 out of 100 (Neutral): rank 532 of 1018 in Industrials, median 61.
- The P/E is 33.3 (Industrial (Machinery) median 23.8, own median of recent years 43.6).
- Our model puts fair value at $39.77, with the price 98% above it.
In plain words
The numbers on this page in plain words, written by an AI
Strengths
- Growing faster than its industryRevenue up 22.9% a year since 2020, Industrial (Machinery) median 7.8%.Growth 71
- Analysts expect strong earnings growthUp 29.1% a year through 2027 (estimates from 4 analysts).Growth 71
- Consistently profitableProfit in all 10 fiscal years from 2016 to 2025.Fundamentals 68
Weaknesses
- Negative free cash flowFree cash flow −$190.03M over the last 12 months.Fundamentals 68
- Margin fallingOperating margin 10.6%, average of the prior years 17.4% (to 2024).Profitability 66
- Volatile share priceVolatility 67% a year over the last 12 months.Stability 68
Its standout strengths are growth and capital allocation, while valuation and momentum hold the score back.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
How the score is calculatedScore overview
Score since yesterday from 58 to 60.
The fundamentals are in the middle range.
Score history
The full history of up to 20 years comes with MEQIRI Pro.
See plansCrash risk high
How well MEQIRI warnsOne of the 30% with the highest crash risk among smaller stocks.
From 2016 to 2025, 36 in 100 such stocks fell 30% or more within a year, against a group average of 23 in 100.
What drives the risk
- high price swings
- price far below its 52-week high
- weak momentum
Valuation
Valuation signal
Modestly overvaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $26.52 and expensive above $79.55 (uncertainty very high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $23.21 (cash-flow model) and $56.34 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is above both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.8%. At 9.8% the fair value would be $37.70, at 7.8% it would be $42.89.
Valuation metrics
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (23.8).
Calculate with your own assumptionsCompany performance
This shows several years of history with an automatic assessment.
Revenue
In the twelve months to 30 Sep 2026, revenue rose 71.5% on the twelve months before. Revenue has grown solidly since 2006, at about 10% per year.
Margins
- Gross margin
- Operating margin
- Net margin
In fiscal 2025: gross 27%, operating 11%, net 7%.
Debt & balance sheet
latest quarterThe balance sheet is solid, with moderate debt and comfortable interest coverage.
Earnings
- Next earnings
- 1 Mar 2027in 108 days
- Last reported
- 9 Nov 2026EPS reported $0.83 (expected $0.57)above expectations
Analyst estimates
Earnings estimates have barely changed since 15 Oct 2026.
- Earnings per share
- $2.37−0.2%
- Revenue
- $2.31B+0.2%
- Earnings per share
- $3.60−0.1%
- Revenue
- $2.71B+0.2%
MEQIRI has stored the estimates since 15 Oct 2026. Until 30 days are available, the card shows the change since that day. Mean estimate according to Financial Modeling Prep. No price target and no recommendation.
Company outlook raised
Share price after the results: −9.5%2026 sales growth guidance raised to 55% to 60% with gross margin of 25% to 26%, reflecting stronger than expected production and backlog conversion.
“We now expect sales growth of 55% to 60%, gross margin of 25% to 26%, SG&A expense of 13% to 14% of sales, and depreciation and amortization expense of $95 million to $100 million. Our updated outlook reflects stronger-than-expected production, backlog conversion and execution across the enterprise.”The outlook is not part of the score and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
From the earnings call on 10 Aug 2026 (fiscal Q2 2026), read by AI.
Insiders
Open-market purchases and sales by executives, board members and major holders
2 insiders bought on the open market in the last 6 months, $109,584 in total. 4 insiders sold, $7.1M in total.
Sales say less than purchases: many insiders sell on a fixed plan, for taxes or to diversify.
- Stewart David RaymondPurchase
15 Sept 2026, Board
- Shares
- 1,000
- Price
- $74.66
- Value
- $74,660
- Shaub MatthewPurchase
28 Aug 2026, Executive Vice President
- Shares
- 457
- Price
- $76.42
- Value
- $34,924
- Thompson RebeccaSale
2 Jun 2026, Chief Accounting Officer
- Shares
- 4,230
- Price
- $143.42
- Value
- $606,667
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- Fields Gary DSale
29 May 2026, Board
- Shares
- 19,000
- Price
- $140.20
- Value
- $2.66M
- Wichman Gordon DouglasSale
26 May 2026, Executive Vice President
- Shares
- 3,000
- Price
- $140.39
- Value
- $421,170
- Fields Gary DSale
26 May 2026, Board
- Shares
- 21,173
- Price
- $140.34
- Value
- $2.97M
- Kidwell CaseySale
14 May 2026, Chief Administration Officer
- Shares
- 3,153
- Price
- $138.30
- Value
- $436,071
Partial trades from one filing are shown in one row, with the average price.
Source: Form 4 filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Grants, option exercises, gifts and tax withholdings are hidden. Not a recommendation to buy.
What happened at AAON
The key events of the last six months from our own data. A click takes you to the matching card.
Sector comparison
1018 rated companies in Industrials
- This company
- 60
- Sector median
- 61
Categories against the sector median
The median is the middle value: half of the companies in the sector lie above it, half below. Categories with too few comparable companies are left out.
Competitors in Industrial (Machinery)
The next larger and next smaller companies by market value
- MISUMI Group9962.T $6.83B82
- Hitachi Construction Machinery6305.T $6.71B63
- Yokogawa Electric6841.T $6.61B70
- HD Hyundai267250.KS $6.54B60
- TerexTEX $6.47B59
- JBT MarelJBTM $6.39B53
- AirTAC International Group1590.TW $6.39B71
- Gates IndustrialGTES $6.37B68
ETFs that hold AAON
Held by 11 ETFs on Xetra. Shown per index: the ETF with the largest weight.
| ETF | Weight | Cost | Fund size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amundi MSCI Smart Cities UCITS ETF ACCAMEC | 0.17% | 0.45% | €62.23M |
| State Street SPDR S&P 400 U.S. Mid Cap UCITS ETF (Acc)SPY4 | 0.11% | 0.30% | €5.36B |
| iShares MSCI USA Small Cap CTB Enhanced ESG UCITS ETFSXRG | 0.07% | 0.43% | €2.5B |
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| iShares MSCI World Small Cap CTB Enhanced ESG UCITS ETFCBUG | 0.07% | 0.10% | €395.74M |
| State Street SPDR MSCI World Small Cap UCITS ETF (Acc)ZPRS | 0.05% | 0.45% | €1.54B |
| State Street SPDR MSCI USA Small Cap Value Weighted UCITS ETFZPRV | 0.02% | 0.30% | €964.08M |
| UBS MSCI USA Select Factor Mix UCITS ETF USD accUSUE | 0.01% | 0.25% | €178.55M |
| Vanguard ESG Global All Cap UCITS ETF (USD) AccumulatingV3AA | 0.01% | 0.24% | €1.69B |
Holdings as reported by the funds via FMP, excluding swap ETFs (their holdings are only collateral).
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 28 Feb 2025)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.