Alcoa stock
AANYSEAlcoa Corporation, Basic MaterialsISIN US0138721065
60Score 60 out of 100, Neutral
Price and trend
42 / 100
Price history
+1.0% in one yearThe chart shows daily closes over 20 years, adjusted for stock splits and without dividends. Click into the chart to set a price alert at that price.
Below the 200-day line: the price is 27% below it.
Since August 2026 the 50-day line has been below the 200-day line; the trend has turned down.
Normal: the price is neither overheated nor sold off (RSI 59).
The price is 52% below its 52-week high. Largest decline in 20 years: 95% (July 2007 to March 2020).
Chart figures for advanced users
- SMA 50$42.77
- Average price of the last 50 trading days, shows the short-term trend.
- SMA 200$55.46
- Average price of the last 200 trading days, shows the long-term trend.
- RSI (14)59
- Relative strength over the last 14 days on a scale from 0 to 100. Above 70 the price counts as overheated, below 30 as sharply fallen.
- MACDabove the signal line
- Compares a fast and a slow price average. Above its signal line momentum is rising, below it momentum is fading.
- Support$35.78
- The lowest closing price of the last twelve months.
- Resistance$83.79
- The highest closing price of the last twelve months.
Snapshot
Computed from the data by fixed rules, no AI
- Alcoa Corporation belongs to the Aluminum industry (United States) and, with a market value of $10.68B, is number 8 of 18 companies in its industry on MEQIRI.
- In fiscal 2025 it reported revenue of $12.83B (up 5.3% year on year) and earnings of $1.16B (up 1,828.3%).
- For fiscal 2026, analysts expect on average revenue of $14.74B (up 14.9%) and adjusted earnings per share of $6.89 (up 82.2%).
Show more
- MEQIRI Score 60 out of 100 (Neutral): rank 207 of 467 in Basic Materials, median 58.
- The P/E is 7 (Aluminum median 9.5, own median of recent years 25.9).
- Our model puts fair value at $57.26, with the price 28% below it.
In plain words
The numbers on this page in plain words, written by an AI
Strengths
- Modestly valuedP/E 7, Aluminum median 9.5, own median 25.9.Valuation 91
Weaknesses
- DilutionShare count up 40% since 2020.Capital allocation 56
- Analysts expect falling earningsDown 14.8% a year through 2028 (estimates from 9 analysts).Growth 68
- Margin fallingOperating margin 5.9%, average of the prior years 9.6% (to 2024).Profitability 68
Its standout strength is valuation, while technical analysis and momentum hold the score back.
Daily figure as of 12 Nov 2026
How the score is calculatedScore overview
Score since yesterday from 59 to 60.
The fundamentals are in the middle range.
Score history
The full history of up to 20 years comes with MEQIRI Pro.
See plansCrash risk high
How well MEQIRI warnsOne of the 30% with the highest crash risk among smaller stocks.
From 2016 to 2025, 36 in 100 such stocks fell 30% or more within a year, against a group average of 23 in 100.
What drives the risk
- price far below its 52-week high
- high price swings
- cyclical sector (energy or materials), as a group, crashed more often in the backtest
Valuation
Valuation signal
Modestly undervaluedClosing price of 11 Nov 2026, used by the daily score.
In our model the price counts as cheap below $40.90 and expensive above $95.43 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $59.77 (cash-flow model) and $54.75 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is below both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 9%. At 10% the fair value would be $52.63, at 8% it would be $64.12.
Valuation metrics
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (9.5).
Calculate with your own assumptionsCompany performance
This shows several years of history with an automatic assessment.
Revenue
In the twelve months to 30 Sep 2026, revenue rose 7.1% on the twelve months before. Revenue has declined since 2013 (-5% per year), so it is worth watching closely.
Margins
- Gross margin
- Operating margin
- Net margin
In fiscal 2025: gross 17%, operating 6%, net 9%.
Debt & balance sheet
latest quarterModerate debt, and interest is adequately covered.
Earnings
- Next earnings
- 21 Jan 2027in 70 days
- Last reported
- 15 Oct 2026EPS reported $1.82 (expected $1.51)above expectations
Analyst estimates
Analysts have cut their 2027 earnings estimate by 8.9% since 15 Oct 2026. Falling estimates often precede bad news.
- Earnings per share
- $6.89+4.7%
- Revenue
- $14.74B−0.3%
- Earnings per share
- $5.48−8.9%
- Revenue
- $14.94B−1.5%
MEQIRI has stored the estimates since 15 Oct 2026. Until 30 days are available, the card shows the change since that day. Mean estimate according to Financial Modeling Prep. No price target and no recommendation.
Company outlook lowered
Share price after the results: −9.5%Outlook lowered: 2026 alumina production now 9.5 million to 9.6 million tonnes and shipments 11.5 million to 11.6 million tonnes because of problems at the Pinjarra refinery; higher corporate costs.
“We are lowering our full year alumina production and shipment expectations to 9.5 to 9.6 million metric tons and 11.5 to 11.6 million metric tons, respectively, due primarily to challenges at the Pinjar refinery during the second quarter.”The outlook is not part of the score and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
From the earnings call on 16 Jul 2026 (fiscal Q2 2026), read by AI.
Insiders
Open-market purchases and sales by executives, board members and major holders
No open-market purchases in the last 6 months. 4 insiders sold, $1.35M in total.
Sales say less than purchases: many insiders sell on a fixed plan, for taxes or to diversify.
- Bacchi RenatoSale
31 Aug 2026, EVP & Chief Commercial Officer
- Shares
- 700
- Price
- $51.02
- Value
- $35,714
- Jones Tammi ASale
27 Aug 2026, EVP & CHRO
- Shares
- 15,628
- Price
- $50.60
- Value
- $790,733
- Hastings AndrewSale
17 Aug 2026, EVP & Gen. Counsel
- Shares
- 6,000
- Price
- $50.90
- Value
- $305,412
Show 1 more
- Reed Matthew TSale
22 Jul 2026, EVP, Chief Operations Officer
- Shares
- 4,600
- Price
- $46.82
- Value
- $215,372
Source: Form 4 filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Grants, option exercises, gifts and tax withholdings are hidden. Not a recommendation to buy.
What happened at Alcoa
The key events of the last six months from our own data. A click takes you to the matching card.
Sector comparison
467 rated companies in Basic Materials
- This company
- 60
- Sector median
- 58
Categories against the sector median
The median is the middle value: half of the companies in the sector lie above it, half below. Categories with too few comparable companies are left out.
Competitors in Aluminum
The next larger and next smaller companies by market value
- Vedanta Aluminium MetalVAML.NS $16.23B42
- Norsk HydroNHY.OL $14.45B62
- Yunnan Aluminium000807.SZ $12.17B69
- Guangdong Hec Technologyholding600673.SS $11.05B31
- Henan Shenhuo Coal Industry and Electricity Power000933.SZ $8.24B71
- Tianshan Aluminum Group002532.SZ $7.83B67
- Shandong Nanshan Aluminium600219.SS $7.37B60
- National AluminiumNATIONALUM.NS $6.39B77
ETFs that hold Alcoa
Held by 12 ETFs on Xetra. Shown per index: the ETF with the largest weight.
| ETF | Weight | Cost | Fund size |
|---|---|---|---|
| WisdomTree Strategic Metals and Rare Earths Miners UCITS ETF USD AccRARE | 0.98% | 0.50% | €604M |
| UBS Global Gender Equality UCITS ETF hEUR accGGUE | 0.82% | 0.23% | €188.95M |
| VanEck S&P Global Mining UCITS ETF A USDWMIN | 0.55% | 0.50% | €1.98B |
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| State Street SPDR S&P 400 U.S. Mid Cap UCITS ETF (Acc)SPY4 | 0.30% | 0.30% | €5.27B |
| State Street SPDR MSCI USA Small Cap Value Weighted UCITS ETFZPRV | 0.13% | 0.30% | €944.34M |
| State Street SPDR MSCI World Small Cap UCITS ETF (Acc)ZPRS | 0.10% | 0.45% | €1.53B |
| Invesco RAFI US Fundamental Value UCITS ETF6PSA | 0.03% | 0.39% | €1.23B |
| UBS MSCI USA Select Factor Mix UCITS ETF USD accUSUE | 0.03% | 0.25% | €175.89M |
Holdings as reported by the funds via FMP, excluding swap ETFs (their holdings are only collateral).
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 12 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 2 May 2025)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.