JCHX Mining Management stock: fair value
603979.SSThe fair value of JCHX Mining Management under our model is $23.10, the price is 66% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Valuation signal
Significantly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $16.50 and expensive above $38.50 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $37.24 (cash-flow model) and $8.97 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is below both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.8%. At 9.8% the fair value would be $20.35, at 7.8% it would be $26.87.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (13.2).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 2.3%. Discounted at 8.8% (government bond yield 2.3% plus beta 1.27 times a risk premium of 5.1%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $37.24 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 8.8%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 8.8%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $712.16M | extrapolated at 50.2% | 0.9190 | $654.48M |
| 2027 | $967.38M | extrapolated at 35.8% | 0.8446 | $817.03M |
| 2028 | $1.22B | extrapolated at 25.8% | 0.7762 | $944.43M |
| 2029 | $1.44B | extrapolated at 18.7% | 0.7133 | $1.03B |
| 2030 | $1.64B | extrapolated at 13.8% | 0.6555 | $1.08B |
| 2031 | $1.81B | extrapolated at 10.4% | 0.6025 | $1.09B |
| 2032 | $1.96B | extrapolated at 7.9% | 0.5537 | $1.08B |
| 2033 | $2.08B | extrapolated at 6.3% | 0.5088 | $1.06B |
| 2034 | $2.19B | extrapolated at 5.1% | 0.4676 | $1.02B |
| 2035 | $2.28B | extrapolated at 4.2% | 0.4297 | $979.65M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $9.76B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 2.3%) / (8.8% − 2.3%) | $35.87B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4297) | $15.41B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $25.18B |
| Shares (diluted) | 676.10M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $37.24 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $0.68 |
| × 13.2 (industry P/E) | $8.97 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $23.10 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = CN¥6.6683)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Strong, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 23 May 2025)
- Valuation signal Undervalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.