Metallurgical Corporation of China stock: fair value
601618.SSThe fair value of Metallurgical Corporation of China under our model is $0.40, the price is 6% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Fairly valuedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $0.31 and expensive above $0.58 (uncertainty medium, based on the price swings of the past year).
Calculated with a cost of equity of 12.6%. At 13.6% the fair value would be $0.37, at 11.6% it would be $0.44.
Where the number comes from
From the cash-flow model alone; the profit includes one-off items, so there is no industry value.
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 2.3%. Discounted at 12.6% (government bond yield 2.3% plus beta 2 times a risk premium of 5.1%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $0.40 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 12.6%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 12.6%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.18B | extrapolated at −16.5% | 0.8882 | $1.05B |
| 2027 | $1.05B | extrapolated at −10.9% | 0.7889 | $828.89M |
| 2028 | $978.24M | extrapolated at −6.9% | 0.7006 | $685.4M |
| 2029 | $937.76M | extrapolated at −4.1% | 0.6223 | $583.57M |
| 2030 | $917.1M | extrapolated at −2.2% | 0.5527 | $506.9M |
| 2031 | $909.31M | extrapolated at −0.9% | 0.4909 | $446.39M |
| 2032 | $910.21M | extrapolated at 0.1% | 0.4360 | $396.86M |
| 2033 | $917.14M | extrapolated at 0.8% | 0.3873 | $355.17M |
| 2034 | $928.39M | extrapolated at 1.2% | 0.3440 | $319.33M |
| 2035 | $942.8M | extrapolated at 1.6% | 0.3055 | $288.02M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $5.46B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 2.3%) / (12.6% − 2.3%) | $9.38B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.3055) | $2.87B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $8.32B |
| Shares (diluted) | 20.61B |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $0.40 |
| Fair value (from the cash flow model alone) | $0.40 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = CN¥6.6683)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Weak, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 31 Oct 2025)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.