Aluminum Corporation of China stock: fair value
601600.SSThe fair value of Aluminum Corporation of China under our model is $2.38, the price is 49% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Significantly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $1.70 and expensive above $3.97 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $3.54 (cash-flow model) and $1.22 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is below both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.3%. At 9.3% the fair value would be $2.13, at 7.3% it would be $2.74.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (7.1).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 2.3%. Discounted at 8.3% (government bond yield 2.3% plus beta 1.16 times a risk premium of 5.1%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $3.54 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 8.3%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 8.3%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $3.83B | extrapolated at −0.7% | 0.9236 | $3.54B |
| 2027 | $3.84B | extrapolated at 0.2% | 0.8531 | $3.27B |
| 2028 | $3.87B | extrapolated at 0.8% | 0.7879 | $3.05B |
| 2029 | $3.92B | extrapolated at 1.3% | 0.7277 | $2.85B |
| 2030 | $3.98B | extrapolated at 1.6% | 0.6721 | $2.68B |
| 2031 | $4.05B | extrapolated at 1.8% | 0.6208 | $2.52B |
| 2032 | $4.13B | extrapolated at 2.0% | 0.5733 | $2.37B |
| 2033 | $4.22B | extrapolated at 2.1% | 0.5296 | $2.23B |
| 2034 | $4.31B | extrapolated at 2.1% | 0.4891 | $2.11B |
| 2035 | $4.4B | extrapolated at 2.2% | 0.4517 | $1.99B |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $26.6B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 2.3%) / (8.3% − 2.3%) | $75.54B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4517) | $34.12B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $60.73B |
| Shares (diluted) | 17.15B |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $3.54 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $0.17 |
| × 7.1 (industry P/E) | $1.22 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $2.38 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = CN¥6.6683)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral since 11 Nov 2026, previously Strong
- Valuation signal Undervalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.