Baiyin Nonferrous Group stock: fair value
601212.SSThe fair value of Baiyin Nonferrous Group under our model is $0.19, the price is 277% above.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Significantly overvaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $0.13 and expensive above $0.38 (uncertainty very high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $0.34 (cash-flow model) and $0.05 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is above both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 10.9%. At 11.9% the fair value would be $0.17, at 9.9% it would be $0.21.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (13.2).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 2.3%. Discounted at 10.9% (government bond yield 2.3% plus beta 1.66 times a risk premium of 5.1%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $0.34 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 10.9%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 10.9%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $166.67M | extrapolated at 16.3% | 0.9021 | $150.35M |
| 2027 | $186.83M | extrapolated at 12.1% | 0.8137 | $152.03M |
| 2028 | $203.93M | extrapolated at 9.2% | 0.7340 | $149.69M |
| 2029 | $218.41M | extrapolated at 7.1% | 0.6622 | $144.63M |
| 2030 | $230.79M | extrapolated at 5.7% | 0.5973 | $137.85M |
| 2031 | $241.54M | extrapolated at 4.7% | 0.5388 | $130.15M |
| 2032 | $251.09M | extrapolated at 4.0% | 0.4861 | $122.04M |
| 2033 | $259.77M | extrapolated at 3.5% | 0.4385 | $113.9M |
| 2034 | $267.87M | extrapolated at 3.1% | 0.3955 | $105.95M |
| 2035 | $275.57M | extrapolated at 2.9% | 0.3568 | $98.32M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $1.3B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 2.3%) / (10.9% − 2.3%) | $3.3B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.3568) | $1.18B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $2.48B |
| Shares (diluted) | 7.40B |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $0.34 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $0.00 |
| × 13.2 (industry P/E) | $0.05 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $0.19 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = CN¥6.6683)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Weak, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 1 May 2026)
- Valuation signal Overvalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.