Caitong Securities stock: fair value
601108.SSThe fair value of Caitong Securities under our model is $2.80, the price is 61% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Significantly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $2.15 and expensive above $4.00 (uncertainty medium, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $2.31 (cash-flow model) and $3.29 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is below both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 12.4%. At 13.4% the fair value would be $2.69, at 11.4% it would be $2.94.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (39.2).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 2.3%. Discounted at 12.4% (government bond yield 2.3% plus beta 1.97 times a risk premium of 5.1%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $2.31 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 12.4%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 12.4%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $853.86M | extrapolated at 23.9% | 0.8895 | $759.47M |
| 2027 | $1B | extrapolated at 17.4% | 0.7911 | $793.06M |
| 2028 | $1.13B | extrapolated at 12.9% | 0.7037 | $796.2M |
| 2029 | $1.24B | extrapolated at 9.7% | 0.6259 | $776.91M |
| 2030 | $1.33B | extrapolated at 7.5% | 0.5567 | $742.76M |
| 2031 | $1.41B | extrapolated at 5.9% | 0.4952 | $699.85M |
| 2032 | $1.48B | extrapolated at 4.9% | 0.4404 | $652.65M |
| 2033 | $1.54B | extrapolated at 4.1% | 0.3917 | $604.22M |
| 2034 | $1.6B | extrapolated at 3.6% | 0.3484 | $556.52M |
| 2035 | $1.65B | extrapolated at 3.2% | 0.3099 | $510.74M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $6.89B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 2.3%) / (12.4% − 2.3%) | $16.66B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.3099) | $5.16B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $12.06B |
| Shares (diluted) | 5.21B |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $2.31 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $0.08 |
| × 39.2 (industry P/E) | $3.29 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $2.80 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = CN¥6.6683)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 30 Jun 2023)
- Valuation signal Undervalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.