Poly Developments and Holdings Group stock: fair value
600048.SSThe fair value of Poly Developments and Holdings Group under our model is $1.44, the price is 44% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Possible value trapIn our model the price counts as cheap below $1.03 and expensive above $2.40 (uncertainty high, one part of the fair value is more than twice the other).
The two parts of the fair value come to $2.42 (cash-flow model) and $0.46 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 12.6%. At 13.6% the fair value would be $1.33, at 11.6% it would be $1.58.
Possible value trap: looks cheap, but score below 50.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (25.6).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 2.3%. Discounted at 12.6% (government bond yield 2.3% plus beta 2 times a risk premium of 5.1%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $2.42 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 12.6%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 12.6%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.68B | extrapolated at 8.2% | 0.8882 | $2.38B |
| 2027 | $2.85B | extrapolated at 6.4% | 0.7889 | $2.25B |
| 2028 | $3B | extrapolated at 5.2% | 0.7006 | $2.1B |
| 2029 | $3.13B | extrapolated at 4.3% | 0.6223 | $1.95B |
| 2030 | $3.25B | extrapolated at 3.7% | 0.5527 | $1.79B |
| 2031 | $3.35B | extrapolated at 3.3% | 0.4909 | $1.65B |
| 2032 | $3.45B | extrapolated at 3.0% | 0.4360 | $1.51B |
| 2033 | $3.55B | extrapolated at 2.8% | 0.3873 | $1.37B |
| 2034 | $3.64B | extrapolated at 2.7% | 0.3440 | $1.25B |
| 2035 | $3.74B | extrapolated at 2.6% | 0.3055 | $1.14B |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $17.39B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 2.3%) / (12.6% − 2.3%) | $37.19B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.3055) | $11.36B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $28.75B |
| Shares (diluted) | 11.87B |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $2.42 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $0.02 |
| × 25.6 (industry P/E) | $0.46 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $1.44 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = CN¥6.6683)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Weak, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 28 Oct 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.