Hangzhou Changchuan Technology stock: fair value
300604.SZThe fair value of Hangzhou Changchuan Technology under our model is $10.72, the price is 173% above.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Significantly overvaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $7.15 and expensive above $21.45 (uncertainty very high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $0.68 (cash-flow model) and $20.77 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is above both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 11.7%. At 12.7% the fair value would be $10.69, at 10.7% it would be $10.77.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (39.8).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 2.3%. Discounted at 11.7% (government bond yield 2.3% plus beta 1.83 times a risk premium of 5.1%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $0.68 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 11.7%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 11.7%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $30.52M | extrapolated at 19.5% | 0.8950 | $27.31M |
| 2027 | $34.9M | extrapolated at 14.4% | 0.8011 | $27.95M |
| 2028 | $38.64M | extrapolated at 10.7% | 0.7170 | $27.71M |
| 2029 | $41.81M | extrapolated at 8.2% | 0.6417 | $26.83M |
| 2030 | $44.51M | extrapolated at 6.4% | 0.5744 | $25.56M |
| 2031 | $46.82M | extrapolated at 5.2% | 0.5141 | $24.07M |
| 2032 | $48.85M | extrapolated at 4.3% | 0.4601 | $22.48M |
| 2033 | $50.67M | extrapolated at 3.7% | 0.4118 | $20.87M |
| 2034 | $52.34M | extrapolated at 3.3% | 0.3686 | $19.29M |
| 2035 | $53.91M | extrapolated at 3.0% | 0.3299 | $17.79M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $239.86M |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 2.3%) / (11.7% − 2.3%) | $585.68M |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.3299) | $193.21M |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $433.08M |
| Shares (diluted) | 641.00M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $0.68 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $0.52 |
| × 39.8 (industry P/E) | $20.77 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $10.72 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = CN¥6.6683)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Strong, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 5 Nov 2026)
- Valuation signal Overvalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.