Nanya Technology stock: fair value
2408.TWThe fair value of Nanya Technology under our model is $30.79, the price is 62% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Significantly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $20.53 and expensive above $61.58 (uncertainty very high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $0.14 (cash-flow model) and $61.44 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 12.9%. At 13.9% the fair value would be $30.79, at 11.9% it would be $30.80.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (39.8).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 3.8%. Discounted at 12.9% (government bond yield 3.8% plus beta 1.8 times a risk premium of 5%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $0.14 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 12.9%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 12.9%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $86.87M | extrapolated at −34.2% | 0.8860 | $76.96M |
| 2027 | $67.07M | extrapolated at −22.8% | 0.7849 | $52.64M |
| 2028 | $57.13M | extrapolated at −14.8% | 0.6954 | $39.73M |
| 2029 | $51.87M | extrapolated at −9.2% | 0.6161 | $31.96M |
| 2030 | $49.12M | extrapolated at −5.3% | 0.5459 | $26.81M |
| 2031 | $47.86M | extrapolated at −2.6% | 0.4836 | $23.15M |
| 2032 | $47.55M | extrapolated at −0.7% | 0.4285 | $20.37M |
| 2033 | $47.88M | extrapolated at 0.7% | 0.3796 | $18.18M |
| 2034 | $48.67M | extrapolated at 1.6% | 0.3363 | $16.37M |
| 2035 | $49.78M | extrapolated at 2.3% | 0.2980 | $14.83M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $321M |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 3.8%) / (12.9% − 3.8%) | $571.69M |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.2980) | $170.34M |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $491.34M |
| Shares (diluted) | 3.45B |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $0.14 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $1.54 |
| × 39.8 (industry P/E) | $61.44 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $30.79 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = NT$32.8500)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Strong, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 31 Oct 2026)
- Valuation signal Undervalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.