Hebei Sinopack Electronic Technology stock: fair value
003031.SZThe fair value of Hebei Sinopack Electronic Technology under our model is $6.67, the price is 98% above.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Modestly overvaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $4.45 and expensive above $13.34 (uncertainty very high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $7.10 (cash-flow model) and $6.24 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is above both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 9.4%. At 10.4% the fair value would be $6.18, at 8.4% it would be $7.32.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (25.1).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 2.3%. Discounted at 9.4% (government bond yield 2.3% plus beta 1.38 times a risk premium of 5.1%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $7.10 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 9.4%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 9.4%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $109.84M | extrapolated at 44.2% | 0.9142 | $100.42M |
| 2027 | $144.55M | extrapolated at 31.6% | 0.8358 | $120.82M |
| 2028 | $177.53M | extrapolated at 22.8% | 0.7641 | $135.65M |
| 2029 | $207.1M | extrapolated at 16.7% | 0.6986 | $144.68M |
| 2030 | $232.69M | extrapolated at 12.4% | 0.6386 | $148.61M |
| 2031 | $254.43M | extrapolated at 9.3% | 0.5839 | $148.55M |
| 2032 | $272.83M | extrapolated at 7.2% | 0.5338 | $145.63M |
| 2033 | $288.54M | extrapolated at 5.8% | 0.4880 | $140.81M |
| 2034 | $302.16M | extrapolated at 4.7% | 0.4461 | $134.81M |
| 2035 | $314.24M | extrapolated at 4.0% | 0.4079 | $128.17M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $1.35B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 2.3%) / (9.4% − 2.3%) | $4.55B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4079) | $1.85B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $3.2B |
| Shares (diluted) | 451.05M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $7.10 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $0.25 |
| × 25.1 (industry P/E) | $6.24 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $6.67 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = CN¥6.6683)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 16 Oct 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 13 Nov 2026, previously Overvalued
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.