Avary Holding(Shenzhen)Co. stock: fair value
002938.SZThe fair value of Avary Holding(Shenzhen)Co. under our model is $5.84, the price is 35% above.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Modestly overvaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $3.89 and expensive above $11.68 (uncertainty very high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $3.97 (cash-flow model) and $7.71 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is above both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 9.2%. At 10.2% the fair value would be $5.58, at 8.2% it would be $6.19.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (31.5).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 2.3%. Discounted at 9.2% (government bond yield 2.3% plus beta 1.34 times a risk premium of 5.1%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $3.97 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 9.2%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 9.2%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $508.03M | extrapolated at 14.5% | 0.9159 | $465.3M |
| 2027 | $563.17M | extrapolated at 10.9% | 0.8389 | $472.42M |
| 2028 | $609.86M | extrapolated at 8.3% | 0.7683 | $468.55M |
| 2029 | $649.48M | extrapolated at 6.5% | 0.7037 | $457.02M |
| 2030 | $683.52M | extrapolated at 5.2% | 0.6445 | $440.52M |
| 2031 | $713.33M | extrapolated at 4.4% | 0.5903 | $421.06M |
| 2032 | $740.05M | extrapolated at 3.8% | 0.5406 | $400.09M |
| 2033 | $764.58M | extrapolated at 3.3% | 0.4952 | $378.59M |
| 2034 | $787.62M | extrapolated at 3.0% | 0.4535 | $357.19M |
| 2035 | $809.69M | extrapolated at 2.8% | 0.4154 | $336.32M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $4.2B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 2.3%) / (9.2% − 2.3%) | $12.05B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4154) | $5.01B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $9.2B |
| Shares (diluted) | 2.32B |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $3.97 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $0.24 |
| × 31.5 (industry P/E) | $7.71 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $5.84 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = CN¥6.6683)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Weak since 10 Nov 2026, previously Neutral
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.