Shenzhen Kedali Industry stock: fair value
002850.SZThe fair value of Shenzhen Kedali Industry under our model is $17.13, the price is 47% above.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Modestly overvaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $12.23 and expensive above $28.55 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $6.61 (cash-flow model) and $27.65 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 10%. At 11% the fair value would be $16.72, at 9% it would be $17.66.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (25.1).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 2.3%. Discounted at 10.0% (government bond yield 2.3% plus beta 1.5 times a risk premium of 5.1%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $6.61 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 10.0%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 10.0%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $88.58M | extrapolated at 31.1% | 0.9090 | $80.52M |
| 2027 | $108.45M | extrapolated at 22.4% | 0.8263 | $89.62M |
| 2028 | $126.24M | extrapolated at 16.4% | 0.7511 | $94.82M |
| 2029 | $141.6M | extrapolated at 12.2% | 0.6828 | $96.68M |
| 2030 | $154.65M | extrapolated at 9.2% | 0.6206 | $95.98M |
| 2031 | $165.69M | extrapolated at 7.1% | 0.5642 | $93.48M |
| 2032 | $175.13M | extrapolated at 5.7% | 0.5128 | $89.81M |
| 2033 | $183.32M | extrapolated at 4.7% | 0.4662 | $85.46M |
| 2034 | $190.59M | extrapolated at 4.0% | 0.4238 | $80.76M |
| 2035 | $197.2M | extrapolated at 3.5% | 0.3852 | $75.96M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $883.1M |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 2.3%) / (10.0% − 2.3%) | $2.62B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.3852) | $1.01B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $1.89B |
| Shares (diluted) | 286.39M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $6.61 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $1.10 |
| × 25.1 (industry P/E) | $27.65 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $17.13 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = CN¥6.6683)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 17 Jul 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.