Satellite Chemical stock: fair value
002648.SZThe fair value of Satellite Chemical under our model is $12.62, the price is 72% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Significantly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $9.01 and expensive above $21.03 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $14.56 (cash-flow model) and $10.67 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is below both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 7.7%. At 8.7% the fair value would be $11.40, at 6.7% it would be $14.40.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (22.5).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 2.3%. Discounted at 7.7% (government bond yield 2.3% plus beta 1.04 times a risk premium of 5.2%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $14.56 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 7.7%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 7.7%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.48B | extrapolated at 33.7% | 0.9287 | $1.38B |
| 2027 | $1.84B | extrapolated at 24.3% | 0.8625 | $1.59B |
| 2028 | $2.17B | extrapolated at 17.7% | 0.8010 | $1.74B |
| 2029 | $2.45B | extrapolated at 13.1% | 0.7439 | $1.82B |
| 2030 | $2.69B | extrapolated at 9.8% | 0.6909 | $1.86B |
| 2031 | $2.9B | extrapolated at 7.6% | 0.6417 | $1.86B |
| 2032 | $3.07B | extrapolated at 6.0% | 0.5959 | $1.83B |
| 2033 | $3.22B | extrapolated at 4.9% | 0.5534 | $1.78B |
| 2034 | $3.35B | extrapolated at 4.1% | 0.5140 | $1.72B |
| 2035 | $3.47B | extrapolated at 3.6% | 0.4773 | $1.66B |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $17.25B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 2.3%) / (7.7% − 2.3%) | $66.26B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4773) | $31.63B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $48.87B |
| Shares (diluted) | 3.36B |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $14.56 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $0.47 |
| × 22.5 (industry P/E) | $10.67 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $12.62 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = CN¥6.6683)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Strong, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 26 Jun 2026)
- Valuation signal Undervalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.