Rongsheng Petrochemical stock: fair value
002493.SZThe fair value of Rongsheng Petrochemical under our model is $4.83, the price is 65% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Possible value trapIn our model the price counts as cheap below $3.45 and expensive above $8.05 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $7.29 (cash-flow model) and $2.37 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is below both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.4%. At 9.4% the fair value would be $4.27, at 7.4% it would be $5.62.
Possible value trap: looks cheap, but high risk.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (19.2).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 2.3%. Discounted at 8.4% (government bond yield 2.3% plus beta 1.18 times a risk premium of 5.1%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $7.29 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 8.4%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 8.4%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.09B | extrapolated at 42.9% | 0.9226 | $1.93B |
| 2027 | $2.74B | extrapolated at 30.7% | 0.8512 | $2.33B |
| 2028 | $3.34B | extrapolated at 22.2% | 0.7854 | $2.63B |
| 2029 | $3.89B | extrapolated at 16.2% | 0.7246 | $2.82B |
| 2030 | $4.35B | extrapolated at 12.0% | 0.6685 | $2.91B |
| 2031 | $4.75B | extrapolated at 9.1% | 0.6168 | $2.93B |
| 2032 | $5.09B | extrapolated at 7.1% | 0.5691 | $2.89B |
| 2033 | $5.37B | extrapolated at 5.7% | 0.5251 | $2.82B |
| 2034 | $5.62B | extrapolated at 4.7% | 0.4844 | $2.72B |
| 2035 | $5.85B | extrapolated at 4.0% | 0.4470 | $2.61B |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $26.6B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 2.3%) / (8.4% − 2.3%) | $98.43B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4470) | $44B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $70.59B |
| Shares (diluted) | 9.68B |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $7.29 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $0.12 |
| × 19.2 (industry P/E) | $2.37 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $4.83 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = CN¥6.6683)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 29 Oct 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.