Hangzhou Greatstar Industrial stock: fair value
002444.SZThe fair value of Hangzhou Greatstar Industrial under our model is $6.68, the price is 38% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Valuation signal
Significantly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $4.77 and expensive above $11.13 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $8.25 (cash-flow model) and $5.11 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is below both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 7.3%. At 8.3% the fair value would be $5.96, at 6.3% it would be $7.76.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the sector P/E (17).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 2.3%. Discounted at 7.3% (floor: government bond yield 2.3% plus 5 percentage points, since beta 0.91 times the risk premium would give less); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $8.25 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 7.3%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 7.3%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $317.2M | extrapolated at 26.1% | 0.9319 | $295.59M |
| 2027 | $377.38M | extrapolated at 19.0% | 0.8684 | $327.72M |
| 2028 | $430.12M | extrapolated at 14.0% | 0.8092 | $348.08M |
| 2029 | $475.18M | extrapolated at 10.5% | 0.7541 | $358.34M |
| 2030 | $513.32M | extrapolated at 8.0% | 0.7027 | $360.73M |
| 2031 | $545.72M | extrapolated at 6.3% | 0.6549 | $357.38M |
| 2032 | $573.61M | extrapolated at 5.1% | 0.6103 | $350.05M |
| 2033 | $598.1M | extrapolated at 4.3% | 0.5687 | $340.14M |
| 2034 | $620.13M | extrapolated at 3.7% | 0.5300 | $328.64M |
| 2035 | $640.41M | extrapolated at 3.3% | 0.4939 | $316.27M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $3.38B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 2.3%) / (7.3% − 2.3%) | $13.1B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4939) | $6.47B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $9.85B |
| Shares (diluted) | 1.19B |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $8.25 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $0.30 |
| × 17 (sector P/E) | $5.11 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $6.68 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = CN¥6.6683)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 10 Jul 2026)
- Valuation signal Undervalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.