Guangdong Haid Group stock: fair value
002311.SZThe fair value of Guangdong Haid Group under our model is $7.56, the price is 5% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Fairly valuedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $5.81 and expensive above $10.79 (uncertainty medium, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $8.31 (cash-flow model) and $6.80 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 7.3%. At 8.3% the fair value would be $6.84, at 6.3% it would be $8.63.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (24.4).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 2.3%. Discounted at 7.3% (floor: government bond yield 2.3% plus 5 percentage points, since beta 0.8 times the risk premium would give less); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $8.31 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 7.3%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 7.3%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $521.86M | extrapolated at 16.6% | 0.9319 | $486.31M |
| 2027 | $586.06M | extrapolated at 12.3% | 0.8684 | $508.93M |
| 2028 | $640.59M | extrapolated at 9.3% | 0.8092 | $518.39M |
| 2029 | $686.75M | extrapolated at 7.2% | 0.7541 | $517.89M |
| 2030 | $726.15M | extrapolated at 5.7% | 0.7027 | $510.3M |
| 2031 | $760.35M | extrapolated at 4.7% | 0.6549 | $497.93M |
| 2032 | $790.68M | extrapolated at 4.0% | 0.6103 | $482.53M |
| 2033 | $818.24M | extrapolated at 3.5% | 0.5687 | $465.33M |
| 2034 | $843.88M | extrapolated at 3.1% | 0.5300 | $447.22M |
| 2035 | $868.23M | extrapolated at 2.9% | 0.4939 | $428.78M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $4.86B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 2.3%) / (7.3% − 2.3%) | $17.77B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4939) | $8.77B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $13.64B |
| Shares (diluted) | 1.64B |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $8.31 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $0.28 |
| × 24.4 (industry P/E) | $6.80 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $7.56 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = CN¥6.6683)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 27 Mar 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.